If you don't feel deeply confused about AGI risk, something's wrong
Published on February 21, 2026 3:34 PM GMTEpistemic status: I've been thinking about this for a couple months and finally wrote it down. I don't think I'm saying anything new, but I think it's worth repeating loudly. My sample is skewed toward AI governance fellows; I've interacted with fewer technical AI safety researchers, so my inferences are fuzzier there. I more strongly endorse this argument for the governance crowd.I've had 1-on-1's with roughly 75 fellows across the ERA, IAPS, GovAI, LAS