Analysis
Do AI Risks Require Extraordinary Government Intervention?
via AI Snake Oil [7] — Let’s not skip the hard work of AI governance
AI #169: New Knowledge
via Substack Zvi [999] — Even in a relatively quiet period, AI is out there creating new knowledge.
Childhood And Education #19: Letting Kids Be Kids #2
via Substack Zvi [999] — I cannot emphasize enough the need to let kids be kids.
Thoughts on interviewing candidates for AI safety fellowships
via LessWrong AI [5] — Around July last year I decided I was going to go all in on technical AI safety research. To do that I’d need to get into an AI safety fellowship, quit my job, and sell everything that was in my flat in South Africa (hopefully in that order).I applied to…
Classifier Context Rot: Monitor Performance Degrades with Context Length
via LessWrong AI [3] — Monitoring coding agents for dangerous behavior using language models requires classifying transcripts that often exceed 500K tokens, but prior agent monitoring benchmarks rarely contain transcripts longer than 100K tokens.We show that when used as…
Dating Roundup #12: Sex and Violence
via Substack Zvi [999] — No more burying the sex stuff under an avalanche of other stuff so no one notices.
An Introduction to Exemplar Partitioning for Mechanistic Interpretability
via LessWrong AI [7] — Most of what we currently call "feature discovery" in language models is wrapped up in dictionary-learning methods like sparse autoencoders (SAEs) – which work, and which have been scaled to millions of features on frontier-scale models, but which bundle…
A Year Late, Claude Finally Beats Pokémon
via LessWrong AI [3] — Credit: ClaudePlaysPokemon Elevator Shanty by KurukkooDisclaimer: like some previous posts in this series, this was not primarily written by me, but by a friend. I did substantial editing, however.ClaudePlaysPokemon feat. Opus 4.7 has finally beaten…
The hard core of alignment (is robustifying RL)
via LessWrong AI [5] — Most technical AI safety work that I read seems to miss the mark, failing to make any progress on the hard part of the problem. I think this is a common sentiment, but there's less agreement about what exactly the hard part is? Characterizing this more…
Monthly Roundup #42: May 2026
via Substack Zvi [999] — At least we probably won’t have another pandemic.
Convergent Abstraction Hypothesis
via LessWrong AI [4] — Tl;drConvergent abstraction hypothesis posits abstractions are often convergent in the sense of convergent evolution: different cognitive systems converge on the same abstraction, when facing similar selection pressures and learning in similar…
AI #168: Not Leading the Future
via Substack Zvi [999] — This is what a lull looks like at this point.
Most "inner work" looks like entertainment.
via LessWrong AI [4] — Imagine you’re looking for a personal trainer. You open one trainer’s webpage and read their testimonials: “I had an experience tied for the most intense experiences of my life”; “They do it all with fun, care, and a sense of humour.” You notice that none…
Cyber Lack of Security and AI Governance
via Substack Zvi [999] — The real recent story of AI has been the background work being done on Cybersecurity, as we process the Mythos Moment along with GPT-5.5, and figure out both how to patch the internet and what our new regulatory regime is going to look like.
Voters are surprisingly open to talking about AI risk
via LessWrong AI [14] — TL;DR: Voters are now surprisingly open to talking about existential risk from AI. This seems to have changed in the last 6 months. When campaigning for AI safety-friendly politicians (e.g., Alex Bores), we should talk more about AI in general, and about…
Childhood and Education #18: Do The Math
via Substack Zvi [999] — We did reading yesterday.
The Iliad Intensive Course Materials
via LessWrong AI [5] — We are releasing the course materials of the Iliad Intensive, a new month-long and full-time AI Alignment course that runs in-person every second month. The course targets students with strong backgrounds in mathematics, physics, or theoretical computer…
Childhood And Education #17: Is Our Children Reading
via Substack Zvi [999] — Reading is the most fundamental thing in education.
Why You Can't Use Your Right to Try
via LessWrong AI [4] — The Availability Problem:Imagine you have cancer, or chronic pain, or a progressive degenerative disease of some sort. You have exhausted the traditional treatment options available to you, and none of them have worked. However, there are treatments that…
Is ProgramBench Impossible?
via LessWrong AI [3] — ProgramBench is a new coding benchmark that all frontier models spectacularly fail. We’ve been on a quest for “hard benchmarks” for a while so it’s refreshing to see a benchmark where top models do badly. Unfortunately, ProgramBench has one big problem:…
Live Doom Meter
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0% — We're fine
100% — GG
The Doom Meter is a composite score derived from prediction markets and feed sentiment, updated daily.
70%
Prediction Markets
Weighted average of Manifold Markets questions on AI catastrophe, AGI timelines, expert surveys, and key figures. Direct doom indicators weighted higher than indirect capability markers.
30%
Feed Sentiment
Percentage of recent headlines containing high-alarm keywords (existential risk, catastrophe, extinction). Higher alarm density = higher score.
This is not a scientific estimate of existential risk. It is an opinionated, transparent signal — a vibes-based thermometer for AI doom discourse.
P(Doom) Scoreboard
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