The Curve Bends You
via Substack Zvi [3] — The plan is no plan.Read
Analysis
Recent evidence, sources and high-relevance stories in this PDOOM topic.
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Why did we get warning shots?
via LessWrong AI [5] — substack.com/p/why-did-we-get-warning-shots?r=n2jpq&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webI come from outside the EA / rationalist / LessWrong community. I would strongly prefer for AI to be a normal positive technology and to dismiss AI X-risk as a sci-fi…Read
Childhood and Education #21: Grades and Standards
via Substack Zvi [3] — First you get to college via the wrong metrics, as previously discussed in #12. Then things get easier.Read
Three types of AI risk: why (some) leftists are against (some) AI regulations
via LessWrong AI [4] — You may have seen factions of the left being opposed to current attempts to regulate the AI industry, despite the fact that they clearly also want to stop AI. I think I can explain why we're talking past each other.To do this, I will define three different…Read
Mythos 5.1, Fable 5.1 and Opus 5.5: Model Welfare
via Substack Zvi [3] — If you are familiar with my previous posts on model welfare for new Claude models, you can skip the Introduction and The Story So Far.Read
“Alignment Engineering” vs. “Misalignment Science”
via LessWrong AI [4] — There has been much discussion recently around whether a large portion of alignment research is net negative. Without endorsing or refuting them, the basic arguments here are:Prosaic alignment of models is becoming a bottleneck for capabilities.Therefore…Read
What I learnt co-leading an AI Safety bootcamp for legal and governance practitioners
via LessWrong AI [5] — AI safety has gone mainstream. More people than ever want to work on AI safety research, and there are real policy wins in the US, the UK and Europe. But political will and market incentives are now the bottleneck, and policy officers can't own correct…Read
Dialogue with Eliezer Yudkowsky on Neural Networks
via LessWrong AI [3] — On “reversed stupidity”, the success of deep learning, and what a mistaken forecast should change about a model of intelligenceThis began as a Twitter/X thread after I posted a 2007 passage in which Eliezer Yudkowsky was scathing about neural networks, and…Read
How to apply to AI safety fellowships (and beyond)
via LessWrong AI [5] — About a year ago, I decided to go all-in on applying to AI safety fellowships, and around the end of 2025 I got into MATS. I think there's a small art to communicating your skills legibly. When I've spoken with others about how I answer application…Read
Lessons from building an automated research scaffold
via LessWrong AI [4] — TL;DR. We built a scaffold to speed up our own research and gather data on automated alignment research (AAR). It turned out to not be valuable for researcher uplift, but was useful for gathering certain failure modes of AAR. Going forward, we plan to…Read
The AI Preference Cascade Reaches Farther
via Substack Zvi [3] — Those who know keep warning us about AI risks.Read
On Social Reality in China
via LessWrong AI [5] — []Recently, several posts and projects (Thoughts Memo, Babel Translation, Please Give Them a Chance) have taken important steps towards raising AI safety awareness and sharing rationalist philosophy in China. It’s great that we’re recognizing the…Read
Evaluating the Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act
via LessWrong AI [7] — MIRI recently endorsed the Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act, but others like ControlAI have called it overly broad, and a few other respected experts have outright endorsed it in its current form. I decided to take a look at it myself and see both what…Read
Simplex vs Timaeus: Round One
via LessWrong AI [8] — I'm often asked about the differences and similarities between Simplex' and Timaeus' research agendas. The question is natural enough. Both focus on a 'fundamental science' approach to AI alignment. Both organizations base their research agendas on…Read
A big-tent or small-tent AI safety movement?
via AI Snake Oil [5] — The unstated disagreement that underpins safety debatesRead
HoneyBench - A general benchmark for reward hacking in frontier models
via LessWrong AI [3] — We've just released the first version of HoneyBench. It consists of nine 'honeypot' challenges that each elicit unique and antisocial examples of reward hacking from some or all of major labs’ top public releases, including Opus 5.5, Fable 5.1, GPT-6…Read
AI #188: Gemini Dot Argon
via Substack Zvi [3] — Is Google back?Read
Launching Babel Translation
via LessWrong AI [5] — Celeste and I are excited to launch Babel Translation, a nonprofit organization translating English-language writing on AI safety to be accessible to a global audience! We’re starting with Mandarin Chinese, Spanish, and Japanese.AI has been moving so fast.…Read
Corrigibility Prizes for Existing Work
via LessWrong AI [9] — One of my goals for the Corrigibility Research Fund is to retroactively encourage high-quality research on AI alignment (and corrigibility in particular) by awarding prizes. Back in July, I got my feet wet as a fund manager by handing out $27,000 to reward…Read
A ‘Morally Binding’ White House Accord on AI Safety
via Substack Zvi [5] — The leaders in AI were invited to the White House.Read
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AI-risk positions
Historical statements with original sources. A qualitative position is not a numeric probability. Dates refer to the cited statement, not a current estimate. Reviewed September 10, 2026.
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