Analysis
American Government Takes Down Claude Fable
via Substack Zvi [999] — No good policy gets announced shortly after 5pm eastern on a Friday.
The term “AGI” is almost useless at this point [Linkpost]
via LessWrong AI [7] — The reason I wanted to make this linkpost now rather than some other time is because discussions over AGI and whether or not LLMs are or aren't AGI, and the point of the linkpost is that the term AGI is for our purposes useless at this point, because we…
Simulating Simulators
via LessWrong AI [3] — Author’s I promised myself that when labs moved on to focusing on interpretability vector activations in place of reasoning traces for what invariably gets Goodharted, that it’d be a necessary disclosure as the risks in what might get trampled over…
Citations Needed: Magic Encyclopedias to Save the World
via LessWrong AI [4] — Last week FLF launched a competition “to find the best workflows and methodologies for using AI to produce reliable, trustworthy knowledge bases”. I had (and have ongoing) a substantial role in that effort. Why do I think it’s so important? It’s a lot of…
Reward Hacking at the 1937 World’s Fair
via LessWrong AI [3] — The "Paris 1937 World’s Fair" was a dick measuring contest. At the time, the world was on the verge of the worst war in history. The fair was an opportunity for powers to flex and intimidate each other. Who has more industrial might, more sophisticated…
Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5: The System Card
via Substack Zvi [999] — First things first: Claude Fable 5 is the new best publicly available model.
PSA: Almost nobody is working on alignment
via LessWrong AI [9] — People often assume that a large fraction of the AI safety community works on alignment. As far as we're aware, this is not true. Most people are not working on making sure superintelligent AIs are aligned with human values or follow human…
AI #172: The First Fable
via Substack Zvi [999] — A lot happened this week, including a great trip out to Lighthaven.
You Can Catch Sleeper Agents by Teaching Another Model to Imitate Them
via LessWrong AI [4] — Detecting Hidden Behaviors in LLMs via Activation-matched Finetuning — preprint, 2026. [Paper] [Code]TLDR. Given a model with some unknown, abnormal behavior (backdoors, censorship, reward hacking, ...), construct an aligned reference by training a clean…
Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models
via LessWrong AI [3] — (see full author list at the end)About a year ago, METR showed that the length of tasks frontier models can reliably complete doubles every few months. A related safety-relevant question is this: what length of tasks can models complete without any chain…
Three Labs With a Plan and A Memorandum
via Substack Zvi [999] — The big story today is the release of Claude Fable 5, the version of Claude Mythos that Anthropic believes they can safely distribute to the people.
Against Corrigibility
via LessWrong AI [4] — A “corrigible” agent, per the LW wiki, is:…one that doesn’t interfere with what we would intuitively see as attempts to ’correct’ the agent, or ’correct’ our mistakes in building it; and permits these ’corrections’ despite the apparent instrumentally…
What if Anthropic unilaterally paused capabilities development right now?
via LessWrong AI [6] — In their new post on recursive self-improvement, Anthropic argues that a pause in frontier AI development is needed, but unfortunately, they can't pause on their own, because of less cautious actors:We believe it would be good for the world to have the…
Preparing for Warning Shots to Catalyze International Cooperation on AGI Risks
via LessWrong AI [4] — SummaryThis is a write-up on preparing for warning shots to catalyze international cooperation on AGI risks, and the corollary list of projects one could pursue. We argue we must first (1) understand types of warning shots, then (2) prepare to catch them.…
Learnings from starting an AI safety research team
via LessWrong AI [9] — This post’s goal is to distill our takeaways from building a new research team over the past four months. We describe some context about our team, how it came about, and then describe the lessons learned.Since AI safety is becoming more and more…
OpenAI Offers A New Policy Blueprint
via Substack Zvi [999] — Right after a new Executive Order seems like an excellent time to offer OpenAI’s new document: Democratic Governance of Frontier AI: A Blueprint For A Federal Framework.
Rohin Shah on AGI Safety
via LessWrong AI [6] — Rohin Shah recently had an interview on 80000 hours on his views on AGI Safety and his work at Google DeepMind. I'm posting the transcript below to encourage further discussion. I think the interview is interesting though I disagree on a bunch of topics,…
Sixteen schemes for AI safety
via LessWrong AI [5] — These days, I often run across whippersnappers excited to do something for AI safety — but aren’t quite sure what. One of the fun things about the Future Fund era were the big lists of project ideas; as we enter a new era of crazy money sloshing around, it…
AI #171: False Flag
via Substack Zvi [999] — This was the week of Claude Opus 4.8.
Society Explained: a tool for efficiently exploring >100 theories of society
via LessWrong AI [3] — There are many competing theories of how society does and should function, from Karl Marx and Adam Smith to Steven Pinker and Eliezer Yudkowsky. These theories are often hard to understand - you may need to read an entire book (or dozens of articles) to…
Live Doom Meter
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%
0% — We're fine
100% — GG
The Doom Meter is a composite score derived from prediction markets and feed sentiment, updated daily.
70%
Prediction Markets
Weighted average of Manifold Markets questions on AI catastrophe, AGI timelines, expert surveys, and key figures. Direct doom indicators weighted higher than indirect capability markers.
30%
Feed Sentiment
Percentage of recent headlines containing high-alarm keywords (existential risk, catastrophe, extinction). Higher alarm density = higher score.
This is not a scientific estimate of existential risk. It is an opinionated, transparent signal — a vibes-based thermometer for AI doom discourse.
P(Doom) Scoreboard
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