Analysis
Effective Altruism will be unbundled
via LessWrong AI [5] — From the end of high school to after my sophomore year of college, I considered myself an effective altruist. I was on the board of my college EA club, ran an EA intro fellowship, and went to EA retreats. I was vegetarian, regularly donated to GiveWell,…
AI #173: AI Pauses
via Substack Zvi [999] — A lot of things are always happening.
Several frontier models are substantially prefill aware
via LessWrong AI [3] — This blog post discusses work in a recently-published paper. However, this blogpost was primarily written by Parv Mahajan and Andy Wang, and several of the more speculative takes may not represent the all-things-considered view of the entire team.Link to…
Alignement pretraining could backfire
via LessWrong AI [3] — There has been recent interest in generating synthetic documents to upsample examples of aligned AI during LLM pretraining. See, for instance, Geodesic's Alignment Pretraining paper or Anthropic's "Teaching Claude Why."I worry that this strategy can work…
The Once And Future Fable #3: Fix This Code
via Substack Zvi [999] — The mainstream media continues to sleep on the most important story in the world.
Fable and Mythos: Model Welfare
via Substack Zvi [999] — Fable and Mythos are currently unavailable, but likely will return within a few weeks. I will continue to cover that fiasco, but in the meantime I will also finish my review of Fable, as if it were available, including use of the present tense.
A frontier AI company should shut down
via LessWrong AI [4] — Prior discussion: niplav's shortform (2025); Planning for Extreme AI Risks (2025) by Joshua Clymer A frontier AI company (any one, I don't care which) should close shop and make an announcement along the lines of: Powerful AI could end the human race. We…
The Once And Future Fable #2
via Substack Zvi [999] — On Friday evening the United States Government has forced Anthropic to take down all access to Fable and Mythos.
American Government Takes Down Claude Fable
via Substack Zvi [999] — No good policy gets announced shortly after 5pm eastern on a Friday.
The term “AGI” is almost useless at this point [Linkpost]
via LessWrong AI [7] — The reason I wanted to make this linkpost now rather than some other time is because discussions over AGI and whether or not LLMs are or aren't AGI, and the point of the linkpost is that the term AGI is for our purposes useless at this point, because we…
Simulating Simulators
via LessWrong AI [3] — Author’s I promised myself that when labs moved on to focusing on interpretability vector activations in place of reasoning traces for what invariably gets Goodharted, that it’d be a necessary disclosure as the risks in what might get trampled over…
Citations Needed: Magic Encyclopedias to Save the World
via LessWrong AI [4] — Last week FLF launched a competition “to find the best workflows and methodologies for using AI to produce reliable, trustworthy knowledge bases”. I had (and have ongoing) a substantial role in that effort. Why do I think it’s so important? It’s a lot of…
Reward Hacking at the 1937 World’s Fair
via LessWrong AI [3] — The "Paris 1937 World’s Fair" was a dick measuring contest. At the time, the world was on the verge of the worst war in history. The fair was an opportunity for powers to flex and intimidate each other. Who has more industrial might, more sophisticated…
Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5: The System Card
via Substack Zvi [999] — First things first: Claude Fable 5 is the new best publicly available model.
PSA: Almost nobody is working on alignment
via LessWrong AI [9] — People often assume that a large fraction of the AI safety community works on alignment. As far as we're aware, this is not true. Most people are not working on making sure superintelligent AIs are aligned with human values or follow human…
AI #172: The First Fable
via Substack Zvi [999] — A lot happened this week, including a great trip out to Lighthaven.
You Can Catch Sleeper Agents by Teaching Another Model to Imitate Them
via LessWrong AI [4] — Detecting Hidden Behaviors in LLMs via Activation-matched Finetuning — preprint, 2026. [Paper] [Code]TLDR. Given a model with some unknown, abnormal behavior (backdoors, censorship, reward hacking, ...), construct an aligned reference by training a clean…
Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models
via LessWrong AI [3] — (see full author list at the end)About a year ago, METR showed that the length of tasks frontier models can reliably complete doubles every few months. A related safety-relevant question is this: what length of tasks can models complete without any chain…
Three Labs With a Plan and A Memorandum
via Substack Zvi [999] — The big story today is the release of Claude Fable 5, the version of Claude Mythos that Anthropic believes they can safely distribute to the people.
Against Corrigibility
via LessWrong AI [4] — A “corrigible” agent, per the LW wiki, is:…one that doesn’t interfere with what we would intuitively see as attempts to ’correct’ the agent, or ’correct’ our mistakes in building it; and permits these ’corrections’ despite the apparent instrumentally…
Live Doom Meter
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%
0% — We're fine
100% — GG
The Doom Meter is a composite score derived from prediction markets and feed sentiment, updated daily.
70%
Prediction Markets
Weighted average of Manifold Markets questions on AI catastrophe, AGI timelines, expert surveys, and key figures. Direct doom indicators weighted higher than indirect capability markers.
30%
Feed Sentiment
Percentage of recent headlines containing high-alarm keywords (existential risk, catastrophe, extinction). Higher alarm density = higher score.
This is not a scientific estimate of existential risk. It is an opinionated, transparent signal — a vibes-based thermometer for AI doom discourse.
P(Doom) Scoreboard
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