Analysis
By Strong Default, ASI Will End Liberal Democracy
via LessWrong AI [4] — The existence of liberal democracy—with rule of law, constraints on government power, and enfranchised citizens—relies on a balance of power where individual bad actors can't do too much damage. Artificial superintelligence (ASI), even if it's aligned,…
Housing Roundup #13: More Dakka
via Substack Zvi [999] — Build more housing where people want to live.
Ten different ways of thinking about Gradual Disempowerment
via LessWrong AI [7] — About a year ago, we wrote a paper that coined the term “Gradual Disempowerment.”It proved to be a great success, which is terrific. A friend and colleague told me that it was the most discussed paper at DeepMind last year (selection bias, grain of salt,…
Steering Might Stop Working Soon
via LessWrong AI [5] — Steering LLMs with single-vector methods might break down soon, and by soon I mean soon enough that if you're working on steering, you should start planning for it failing now.This is particularly important for things like steering as a mitigation against…
Sadly, The Whispering Earring
via LessWrong AI [4] — The Whispering Earring (which you should read first) explores one of the most dystopic-utopic scenarios. Imagine you could achieve all you've ever wanted by just giving up your agency. While theoretically this seems rather undesirable, in practice you get…
Anthropic Responsible Scaling Policy v3: Dive Into The Details
via Substack Zvi [999] — Wednesday’s post talked about the implications of Anthropic changing from v2.2 to v3.0 of its RSP, including that this broke promises that many people relied upon when making important decisions.
Systematically dismantle the AI compute supply chain.
via LessWrong AI [9] — This is not an April fool’s joke, I’m participating in Inkhaven, which means I need to write a blog post every day.I recently watched The AI Doc. It’s the first big documentary featuring AI safety. It’s playing in theatres across America. It’s got a bunch…
AI #162: Visions of Mythos
via Substack Zvi [999] — Anthropic had some problem with leaks this week.
Anthropic's Pause is the Most Expensive Alarm in Corporate History
via LessWrong AI [6] — Imagine Apple halting iPhone production because studies linked smartphones to teen suicide rates. Imagine Pfizer proactively pulling Lipitor because of internal studies showing increased cardiac risk, and not because of looming settlements or FDA…
Introducing LIMBO: Maintaining Optimal P(DOOM) (and a call for funding)
via LessWrong AI [12] — We are excited to publicly introduce the Laboratory for Importance-sampled Measure and Bayesian Observation (LIMBO), a small research group working at the intersection of cosmological theory, probability, and existential risk. We believe that the…
Anthropic Responsible Scaling Policy v3: A Matter of Trust
via Substack Zvi [999] — Anthropic has revised its Responsible Scaling Policy to v3.
Product Alignment is not Superintelligence Alignment (and we need the latter to survive)
via LessWrong AI [9] — tl;dr: progress on making Claude friendly[1] is not the same as progress on making it safe to build godlike superintelligence. solving the former does not imply we get a good future.[2] please track the difference.The term 'Alignment' was coined[3] to…
Co-Found Lens Academy With Me. (We have early users and funding)
via LessWrong AI [9] — tl;dr. Lens Academy is creating scalable superingelligence x-risk education with several USPs. Current team: Luc (full time founder, technical generalist) and several part time contributors. We have users and funding. Looking for a cofounder who's either a…
Slack in Cells, Slack in Brains
via LessWrong AI [4] — [A veridically metaphorical explanation of why you shouldn't naïvely cram your life with local optimizations (even for noble or altruistic reasons).]TL;DR: You need Slack to be an effective agent. Slack is fragile, and it is tempting to myopically…
Movie Review: The AI Doc
via Substack Zvi [999] — The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist is a brilliant piece of work.
The state of AI safety in four fake graphs
via LessWrong AI [5] — Here is a quick overview of my intuitions on where we are with AI safety in early 2026:So far, we continue to see exponential improvements in capabilities. This is most visible in the famous “METR graph”, but the trend is clear in many other metrics,…
AI #161 Part 2: Every Debate on AI
via Substack Zvi [999] — AI discorce.
(Some) Natural Emergent Misalignment from Reward Hacking in Non-Production RL
via LessWrong AI [5] — Authors: Satvik Golechha*, Sid Black*, Joseph Bloom* Equal Contribution.This work was done as part of the Model Transparency team at the UK AI Security Institute (AISI).Executive SummaryIn Natural Emergent Misalignment from Reward Hacking in Production RL…
Nick Bostrom: How big is the cosmic endowment?
via LessWrong AI [4] — Superintelligence, pp. 122–3. 2014.Consider a technologically mature civilization capable of building sophisticated von Neumann probes of the kind discussed in the text. If these can travel at 50% of the speed of light, they can reach some stars before the…
What if superintelligence is just weak?
via LessWrong AI [4] — In response to “2023 Or, Why I am Not a Doomer” by Dean W. Ball.Dean Ball is a pretty big voice in AI policy – over 19k subscribers on his newsletter, and a former Senior Policy Advisor for AI at the Trump White House – so why does he disagree that AI…
Live Doom Meter
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%
0% — We're fine
100% — GG
The Doom Meter is a composite score derived from prediction markets and feed sentiment, updated daily.
70%
Prediction Markets
Weighted average of Manifold Markets questions on AI catastrophe, AGI timelines, expert surveys, and key figures. Direct doom indicators weighted higher than indirect capability markers.
30%
Feed Sentiment
Percentage of recent headlines containing high-alarm keywords (existential risk, catastrophe, extinction). Higher alarm density = higher score.
This is not a scientific estimate of existential risk. It is an opinionated, transparent signal — a vibes-based thermometer for AI doom discourse.
P(Doom) Scoreboard
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