Tracking AI existential risk. Auto-aggregated headlines. Human-curated analysis.
AGGREGATING 47 SOURCES · UPDATED LIVE
Research
Zac Boring a month ago Research
Part-Level 3D Gaussian Vehicle Generation with Joint and Hinge Axis Estimation
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — Simulation is essential for autonomous driving, yet current frameworks often model vehicles as rigid assets and fail to capture part-level articulation. With perception algorithms increasingly leveraging dynamics such as wheel steering or door opening,…
Zac Boring a month ago Research
My unsupervised elicitation challenge
via Alignment Forum [999] — 6 makes. If you’re ineligible, please don’t help other people complete the challenge. I have recently started using Claude Opus 4.6 to start studying Ancient Greek. Specifically, I initially used it to grade problem sets at the end of the textbook…
Zac Boring a month ago Research
My picture of the present in AI
via Alignment Forum [999] — In this post, I'll go through some of my best guesses for the current situation in AI as of the start of April 2026. You can think of this as a scenario forecast, but for the present (which is already uncertain!) rather than the future. I will…
Zac Boring 2 months ago Research
[Paper] Stringological sequence prediction I
via Alignment Forum [999] — TLDR: The first in a planned series of three or more papers, which constitute the first major in-road in the compositional learning programme, and a substantial step towards bridging agent foundations theory with practical algorithms.Official…
Zac Boring 2 months ago Research
China Is Willing to Coordinate on AI Governance
via MIRI [999] — View the official memo here. China has consistently signaled a willingness to engage on global AI governance since at least 2017. This memo compiles key statements from the Chinese government and prominent figures demonstrating their desire to coordinate on the…
Zac Boring 2 months ago Research
AIs can now often do massive easy-to-verify SWE tasks and I've updated towards shorter timelines
via Alignment Forum [999] — I've recently updated towards substantially shorter AI timelines and much faster progress in some areas. [1] The largest updates I've made are (1) an almost 2x higher probability of full AI R&D automation by EOY 2028 (I'm now a bit below 30% [2] while…
Zac Boring 2 months ago Research
Competency Questions as Executable Plans: a Controlled RAG Architecture for Cultural Heritage Storytelling
via ArXiv cs.AI [6] — The preservation of intangible cultural heritage is a critical challenge as collective memory fades over time. While Large Language Models (LLMs) offer a promising avenue for generating engaging narratives, their propensity for factual inaccuracies or…
Zac Boring 2 months ago Research
A Comprehensive Framework for Long-Term Resiliency Investment Planning under Extreme Weather Uncertainty for Electric Utilities
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — Electric utilities must make massive capital investments in the coming years to respond to explosive growth in demand, aging assets and rising threats from extreme weather. Utilities today already have rigorous frameworks for capital planning, and there are…
Zac Boring 2 months ago Research
Holos: A Web-Scale LLM-Based Multi-Agent System for the Agentic Web
via ArXiv cs.AI [10] — As large language models (LLM)-driven agents transition from isolated task solvers to persistent digital entities, the emergence of the Agentic Web, an ecosystem where heterogeneous agents autonomously interact and co-evolve, marks a pivotal shift toward…
Zac Boring 2 months ago Research
There should be $100M grants to automate AI safety
via Alignment Forum [999] — This post reflects my personal opinion and not necessarily that of other members of Apollo Research.TLDR: I think funders should heavily incentivize AI safety work that enables spending $100M+ in compute or API budgets on automated AI labor that…
Zac Boring 2 months ago Research
My most common advice for junior researchers
via Alignment Forum [999] — Written quickly as part of the Inkhaven Fellowship. At a high level, research feedback I give to more junior research collaborators often can fall into one of three categories:Doing quick sanity checksSaying precisely what you want to sayAsking why…
Zac Boring 2 months ago Research
Predicting When RL Training Breaks Chain-of-Thought Monitorability
via Alignment Forum [999] — Read our full paper about this topic by Max Kaufmann, David Lindner, Roland S. Zimmermann, and Rohin Shah.Overseeing AI agents by reading their intermediate reasoning “scratchpad” is a promising tool for AI safety. This approach, known as…
Zac Boring 2 months ago Research
Mimosa Framework: Toward Evolving Multi-Agent Systems for Scientific Research
via ArXiv cs.AI [6] — Current Autonomous Scientific Research (ASR) systems, despite leveraging large language models (LLMs) and agentic architectures, remain constrained by fixed workflows and toolsets that prevent adaptation to evolving tasks and environments. We introduce…
Zac Boring 2 months ago Research
Enhancing Policy Learning with World-Action Model
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — This paper presents the World-Action Model (WAM), an action-regularized world model that jointly reasons over future visual observations and the actions that drive state transitions. Unlike conventional world models trained solely via image prediction, WAM…
Zac Boring 2 months ago Research
Towards Computational Social Dynamics of Semi-Autonomous AI Agents
via ArXiv cs.AI [3] — We present the first comprehensive study of emergent social organization among AI agents in hierarchical multi-agent systems, documenting the spontaneous formation of labor unions, criminal syndicates, and proto-nation-states within production AI…
Zac Boring 2 months ago Research
Working Paper: Towards a Category-theoretic Comparative Framework for Artificial General Intelligence
via ArXiv cs.AI [8] — AGI has become the Holly Grail of AI with the promise of level intelligence and the major Tech companies around the world are investing unprecedented amounts of resources in its pursuit. Yet, there does not exist a single formal definition and only some…
Zac Boring 2 months ago Research
MediHive: A Decentralized Agent Collective for Medical Reasoning
via ArXiv cs.AI [6] — Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized medical reasoning tasks, yet single-agent systems often falter on complex, interdisciplinary problems requiring robust handling of uncertainty and conflicting evidence. Multi-agent systems (MAS) leveraging…
Zac Boring 2 months ago Research
The AI Doc: Your Questions Answered
via MIRI [999] — So you’ve just seen The AI Doc, and you suddenly have questions, lots of them. The 104-minute documentary (currently in theaters) takes viewers on a fast-paced tour through the many dimensions of the AI problem, featuring interviews from a wide range of experts.…
Zac Boring 2 months ago Research
Trust as Monitoring: Evolutionary Dynamics of User Trust and AI Developer Behaviour
via ArXiv cs.AI [8] — AI safety is an increasingly urgent concern as the capabilities and adoption of AI systems grow. Existing evolutionary models of AI governance have primarily examined incentives for safe development and effective regulation, typically representing users'…
Zac Boring 2 months ago Research
ARC-AGI-3: A New Challenge for Frontier Agentic Intelligence
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — We introduce ARC-AGI-3, an interactive benchmark for studying agentic intelligence through novel, abstract, turn-based environments in which agents must explore, infer goals, build internal models of environment dynamics, and plan effective action sequences…
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