Research
Efficient tradeoffs and the safety-usefulness tradeoff model
via Alignment Forum [999] — I often use what I’ll call the “safety-usefulness tradeoff model”, which is: developers face a tradeoff between "safety" and "usefulness" of an AI deployment, and the developer has only limited willingness or ability to sacrifice usefulness for the…
Announcing major new donations, and recapping the 2025 fundraiser
via MIRI [999] — This past December, we ran our first fundraiser in six years, setting an ambitious goal of $6M. We ended up receiving a total of $1.8M from small donors and $1.6M in matching from the Survival and Flourishing Fund (SFF) for a total of $3.4M. We’re incredibly…
My research agenda and work
via Alignment Forum [999] — This is a summary of the work I've done and work I plan to do, and the theories of change and AI progress that motivate my work. I've been working full-time on alignment for three years and change, and thinking about brainlike AGI and its alignment…
How Far Did They Go? The Persuasive Tactics of Covert LLM Agents in a Discontinued Field Experiment
via ArXiv cs.AI [5] — This study analyzes a publicly released dataset from a discontinued field experiment on Reddit's r/ChangeMyView. The intervention, conducted by unknown, external researchers and halted following ethical backlash, involved undisclosed AI-generated accounts…
The Saturation Trap and the Subjectivity of Intervention Timing: Why Affect-Based Triggers and LLM Judges Fail to Time Interventions on Autonomous Agents
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — As autonomous AI agents move from conversational systems to long-horizon software execution, runtime safety layers that decide when to interrupt an agent have become essential. We study this timing problem using a continuous 18-dimensional…
Announcing the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge
via Alignment Forum [999] — ARC has teamed up with AIcrowd to launch the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge, a contest to improve upon our estimation algorithms for random MLPs. The warm-up round begins this week, and later rounds will have a total prize pool of at least…
Testing Gemini models for scheming tendencies
via Alignment Forum [999] — As AI models become increasingly capable and autonomous, keeping them safely aligned with human intentions is critical. Extending our previous work on evaluating scheming capabilities, we introduce complementary approaches to test whether AI models…
Advice for making robust-to-training model organisms
via Alignment Forum [999] — We’d like to develop training techniques that work when applied to future misaligned AI systems. One strategy for studying proposed techniques is to test them on model organisms. However, model organisms built with common techniques are often fragile:…
Eval Cooperativeness May Be a Scalable Mitigation for Eval Gaming
via Alignment Forum [999] — Behavioral evaluations may become worthless, which we think would be a disaster. Smart misaligned models may realize they are being evaluated ("eval awareness") and then act to look good to us so we don't realize they're misaligned ("eval gaming"). We…
Full automation of AI R&D probably yields a large speed up even without a software-only singularity
via Alignment Forum [999] — This is a somewhat technical note. By "software-only singularity", I mean that, after full automation of AI R&D, progress gets faster and faster due to smarter AIs driving increasingly fast rates of improvement in algorithms (overcoming diminishing…
Your Agents Are Aging Too: Agent Lifespan Engineering for Deployed Systems
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — Long-lived AI agents are increasingly deployed as persistent operational systems, yet they are still evaluated like freshly initialized models. Day-one benchmarks miss a basic systems question: how long does an agent remain reliable after deployment? Even…
The Erdős Proof and AI Capabilities
via MIRI [999] — View the official memo here. An internal model at OpenAI has autonomously disproved a central conjecture in discrete geometry, a mathematical field with applications in cryptography, wireless device communication, and medical imaging. The proof relates to a…
The Case for Evaluating Model Behaviors
via Alignment Forum [999] — Most evaluations of AI systems focus on their capabilities: how good they are at coding tasks, how effectively they can answer complex scientific questions, and so on.From a safety perspective, capability evaluations have a place: by understanding how…
AgentWall: A Runtime Safety Layer for Local AI Agents
via ArXiv cs.AI [8] — The safety of autonomous AI agents is increasingly recognized as a critical open problem. As agents transition from passive text generators to active actors capable of executing shell commands, modifying files, calling APIs, and browsing the web, the…
Fast-tracking genetic leads to reverse cellular aging
via DeepMind Blog [4] — Biologists use Co-Scientist to find novel factors that successfully rejuvenate human cells.
Verifiable Agentic Infrastructure: Proof-Derived Authorization for Sovereign AI Systems
via ArXiv cs.AI [3] — Modern cloud and enterprise systems rely on identity-centric authorization, assuming that callers possessing valid credentials are safe to execute commands. The emergence of autonomous AI agents invalidates this assumption: agents can generate syntactically…
SDOF: Taming the Alignment Tax in Multi-Agent Orchestration with State-Constrained Dispatch
via ArXiv cs.AI [3] — Multi-agent orchestration frameworks such as LangChain, LangGraph, and CrewAI route tasks through graph-based pipelines but do not enforce the stage constraints that govern real business processes. We present SDOF, a framework that treats multi-agent…
A Two-Dimensional Framework for AI Agent Design Patterns: Cognitive Function and Execution Topology
via ArXiv cs.AI [3] — Existing frameworks for LLM-based agent architectures describe systems from a single perspective: industry guides (Anthropic, Google, LangChain) focus on execution topology -- how data flows -- while cognitive science surveys focus on cognitive function --…
Risk reports need to address deployment-time spread of misalignment
via Alignment Forum [999] — Risk reports commonly use pre-deployment alignment assessments to measure misalignment risk from an internally deployed AI. However, an AI that genuinely starts out with largely benign motivations can develop widespread dangerous motivations during…
Mechanistic estimation for expectations of random products
via Alignment Forum [999] — We have developed some relatively general methods for mechanistic estimation competitive with sampling by studying problems that are expressible as expectations of random products. This includes several different estimation problems, such as random…
Live Doom Meter
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0% — We're fine
100% — GG
The Doom Meter is a composite score derived from prediction markets and feed sentiment, updated daily.
70%
Prediction Markets
Weighted average of Manifold Markets questions on AI catastrophe, AGI timelines, expert surveys, and key figures. Direct doom indicators weighted higher than indirect capability markers.
30%
Feed Sentiment
Percentage of recent headlines containing high-alarm keywords (existential risk, catastrophe, extinction). Higher alarm density = higher score.
This is not a scientific estimate of existential risk. It is an opinionated, transparent signal — a vibes-based thermometer for AI doom discourse.
P(Doom) Scoreboard
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