In partial defence of p(doom)
p(doom) is a shorthand for some important bits and a way to notice a disagreement to double-crux about.If you work on AI capabilities at a frontier AI company, I might ask you for your p(doom).If it's less than 1%, I know that you're probably not familiar with the arguments, or you're maybe dumb in some ways, and will sometimes talk to you about what the situation really is.If it is 80%, I know I should talk to you about the actions people in your position should be taking; we have disagreements
By Mikhail Samin