DOOM LEVEL
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Latest Headlines
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Why Even Experts Don’t Know What to Do About AI Risk
via LessWrong AI [9] — AI Safety veteran Holden Karnofsky thinks there’s a 49% chance his actions are making things worse.[1]In 2025, Jesse Clifton even stepped down as the executive director of the Center on Long-Term risk because of similar reasons.Even top AI Safety…
Trump signs executive order to review AI models before they’re released
via The Verge AI [3] — President Donald Trump signed an executive order Tuesday creating a "voluntary framework" for AI companies to share their frontier models with the federal government before they're released "to promote secure innovation and strengthen the cybersecurity of…
Announcing the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge
via Alignment Forum [999] — ARC has teamed up with AIcrowd to launch the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge, a contest to improve upon our estimation algorithms for random MLPs. The warm-up round begins this week, and later rounds will have a total prize pool of at least…
Claude Opus 4.8: Capabilities and Reactions
via Substack Zvi [999] — You need a lot of data points to understand a new model, and what you have.
Rehumanizing global health care with agentic AI
via MIT Technology Review [4] — The global health care sector is under increasing strain. Decades of chronic underinvestment and constraints in recruitment have coincided with a surge in demand for services for aging populations. Gaps in provision are already taking a toll, with…
Advancing youth safety and opportunity through global leadership
via OpenAI Blog [7] — OpenAI calls for global action on youth AI safety through a dedicated AI Safety Institute
"Contagious Humming" to Silence a Room
via LessWrong AI [4] — Often when running meetups you’ll have several lively conversations going at the same time. This is a great problem to have, but it can make it difficult to get everyone’s attention for announcements.Try using “Contagious Humming” when you need to silence…
NYT: Senator Sanders Proposes Gov't Take 50% Ownership of AI Labs
via LessWrong AI [4] — Quoting from Senator Bernie Sanders Op-Ed in the New York Times today:(...) I will soon be introducing the American A.I. Sovereign Wealth Fund Act. This legislation would give the public a direct ownership stake in the largest A.I. companies in our…
Our views on AI policy and political advocacy
via OpenAI Blog [5] — Our approach to AI policy and political advocacy, transparency, support for thoughtful regulation and AI safety, and that no outside political group speaks on the company’s behalf.
Anthropic has officially filed to go public
via The Verge AI [4] — After months of speculation about whether OpenAI or Anthropic would be first in their race to IPO, Anthropic on Monday reached a key milestone: filing to kick off the process with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing sets the stage for…
Opus 4.8 Part 2: Model Welfare
via Substack Zvi [999] — Everything impacts everything.
OpenAI frontier models and Codex are now available on AWS
via OpenAI Blog [5] — OpenAI frontier models and Codex are now generally available on AWS, giving enterprises a new path to build with OpenAI through the AWS environments, controls, and procurement workflows they already use. Customers can get started with OpenAI on AWS and move…
When Are Two Networks the Same? Tensor Similarity for Mechanistic Interpretability
via LessWrong AI [7] — We've found a method that tells you:How functionally similar two neural networks are across ALL inputs,Computed solely from the weights (i.e. no data),Using a principled generalization of cosine similarity.There's only one catch: you have to use a tensor…
Announcing: Iliad's Fall 2026 Programs
via LessWrong AI [5] — The April 2026 Iliad Intensive cohort, at LISAIliad, an umbrella organization for applied math for AI alignment, is running several additional programs through the end of the year!Applications to all of them are now open, here. Applicants will be selected…
Claude Opus 4.8: The System Card
via Substack Zvi [999] — Only six weeks after Opus 4.7, we have Opus 4.8.
Testing Gemini models for scheming tendencies
via Alignment Forum [999] — As AI models become increasingly capable and autonomous, keeping them safely aligned with human intentions is critical. Extending our previous work on evaluating scheming capabilities, we introduce complementary approaches to test whether AI models…
Developmental Cognitive Interpretability: A Research Agenda for Modelling Generalisation and Predicting Agent Behaviour
via LessWrong AI [3] — SummarySafe deployment of an AI system requires that we can make confident claims about its behaviour on out-of-distribution deployment inputs on the basis of only pre-deployment evaluations. One approach to making such claims is to take a cognitive…
How can the middle powers avoid getting trounced during the intelligence explosion? A plan.
via LessWrong AI [4] — This is an edited version of a LW shortform.Superintelligence will likely be developed by US companies; run on US data centres; and be under the jurisdiction of the US government. This will massively boost US military power and make the US economically…
Trees are mostly made of air and a generalizable lesson for AI safety
via LessWrong AI [5] — At the risk of embarrassing myself, I’ll share a confession.For context, I took five years of Latin: four in high school and one in college. In addition to learning the language, all my Latin classes taught a lot about Roman history. Emperors, internal…
Book Review: The Dialectical Imagination
via Astral Codex Ten [4] — ...
Live Doom Meter
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0% — We're fine
100% — GG
The Doom Meter is a composite score derived from prediction markets and feed sentiment, updated daily.
70%
Prediction Markets
Weighted average of Manifold Markets questions on AI catastrophe, AGI timelines, expert surveys, and key figures. Direct doom indicators weighted higher than indirect capability markers.
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Feed Sentiment
Percentage of recent headlines containing high-alarm keywords (existential risk, catastrophe, extinction). Higher alarm density = higher score.
This is not a scientific estimate of existential risk. It is an opinionated, transparent signal — a vibes-based thermometer for AI doom discourse.
P(Doom) Scoreboard
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Recent Voices
We are creating something that will be more powerful than us. I don't know a good precedent for a less intelligent thing managing a more intelligent thing.
— Geoffrey Hinton, Nobel Prize Lecture, Dec 2024
If you're not worried about AI safety, you're not paying attention.
— Sen. Blumenthal, Senate AI Hearing, 2024
The probability of doom is high enough that we should be working very hard to reduce it.
— Yoshua Bengio, MILA Talk, 2024