DOOM LEVEL
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Endogenous Alignment
via Alignment Forum [999] — Starting when children are fairly young, usually around 1 year of age, we adults begin the work of aligning them to our values. We teach them to say “please”, not to hit, to ask for what they want instead of screaming, and much else. We do this…
Should we benchmark conceptual capabilities using judgment prediction tasks?
via Alignment Forum [999] — A bunch of conceptual reasoning tasks involve very subjective judgments, which makes them poorly suited for benchmarking AI capabilities. For example, it seems unreasonable to benchmark how well AIs can predict the probability of misaligned AI…
Reasons to believe current AI models are conscious
via LessWrong AI [5] — There are a number of reasons to believe current AI models are conscious. I mean “conscious” is the sense of “is there something it is like to be an AI model?” and “does the AI model have phenomenal experience?”. As to what “AI models” refers to, the short…
Announcing the Corrigibility Research Fund
via Alignment Forum [999] — TLDR: I'm managing a new fund, housed at Lightcone Infrastructure, that will award at least $200,000 in grants and prizes for corrigibility research in 2026. Roughly half will go to traditional grants (first application deadline August 23rd) and half…
AI #177 Part 2: Wish You Were Here
via Substack Zvi [999] — As usual, part 2 of the weekly deals with speculative, regulatory, political and alignment questions.
Help us launch AI safety university groups by referring potential founders
via LessWrong AI [5] — TL;DRUniversity groups are among the most reliable producers of AI safety talent, yet dozens of top schools that could sustain a group don't have one. We're launching the AI Safety Seeding Initiative (aisafetyseeding.org) in partnership with Kairos to…
The State of AI Consciousness Research
via LessWrong AI [7] — I am agnostic on whether any current system is conscious; the claim is only that the question is researchable.This piece surveys the empirical research on AI consciousness. The premise of that research, and of the survey, is that the question does not have…
AI #177 Part 1: Tip of the Iceberg
via Substack Zvi [999] — This week saw the releases of, among other things:
Claude can now use your 1Password credentials for you
via The Verge AI [6] — 1Password has launched a new browser integration for Claude that allows the Anthropic chatbot to access stored security credentials like usernames and passwords. The 1Password for Claude feature means that users can authorize Claude to complete multi-step…
The Download: OpenAI unveils GPT-Red and heat pumps rise in the US
via MIT Technology Review [3] — This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology. Meet GPT-Red: an LLM super-hacker OpenAI built to make its models safer OpenAI has built an LLM super-hacker…
Probabilistic Extension of Neuro-Symbolic AGI Robots based on Belnap's Typed Intensional FOL
via ArXiv cs.AI [7] — Neuro-symbolic AI based on $IFOL_B$ is a way to combine neural learning and symbolic reasoning to overcome limitations of purely neural systems (like lack of interpretability and logical structure) with formal logical machinery for self-reference. In this…
Sheetz moves 838 stores off VMware: Broadcom created “too much uncertainty"
via Ars Technica [4] — The conveneince store chain will use StorMagic instead.
Why I Left Google DeepMind
via Alignment Forum [999] — Preface for LessWrong: When I think back on my most cherished memories of this community, I return to those honoring defiance in pursuit of goodness:Defying prestigious dogma and searching for raw truth;Defying social pressure, acting alone to help…
Meet GPT-Red: an LLM super-hacker OpenAI built to make its models safer
via MIT Technology Review [3] — OpenAI has built an LLM super-hacker called GPT-Red that it uses as a sparring partner to help its other models boost their defenses against cyberattacks. Last week the company released the latest version of its flagship LLM, GPT-5.6. OpenAI says…
Monthly Roundup #44: July 2026
via Substack Zvi [999] — It’s a quiet week so let’s do the monthly right on schedule.
The US is advancing AI safety through state and federal action
via OpenAI Blog [10] — OpenAI outlines a “reverse federalism” approach to AI governance, where state laws help build a national framework for safe, democratic AI.
GPT-Red: Unlocking Self-Improvement for Robustness
via OpenAI Blog [7] — Explore GPT-Red, OpenAI’s automated red teaming system that uses self-play to improve AI safety, alignment, and prompt injection robustness.
Designing Agent-Ready Websites for AI Web Agents: A Framework for Machine Readability, Actionability, and Decision Reliability
via ArXiv cs.AI [3] — Online shopping is increasingly shifting toward a model in which AI agents independently search for products, compare options, evaluate constraints, and carry out parts of the purchasing process for users. Website design must now support both human and…
An analysis of AI-generated content at the Mechanistic Interpretability Workshop
via LessWrong AI [7] — IntroductionOver the past few years, AI tools have become useful for conducting technical AI research. In the early ChatGPT era (~2023–2024), chat assistants were maybe useful as sounding boards for research ideas, or as editors for polishing a paper…
SpaceXAI’s Grok programming tool was uploading its users’ entire codebase to cloud storage
via The Verge AI [4] — SpaceXAI's Grok Build AI coding tool was spotted uploading users' entire codebases to Google Cloud before it was reported, and the company turned it off. The Register reports that Cereblab published findings on Monday showing how the Grok Build CLI was…
Live Doom Meter
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0% — We're fine
100% — GG
The Doom Meter is a composite score derived from prediction markets and feed sentiment, updated daily.
70%
Prediction Markets
Weighted average of Manifold Markets questions on AI catastrophe, AGI timelines, expert surveys, and key figures. Direct doom indicators weighted higher than indirect capability markers.
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Feed Sentiment
Percentage of recent headlines containing high-alarm keywords (existential risk, catastrophe, extinction). Higher alarm density = higher score.
This is not a scientific estimate of existential risk. It is an opinionated, transparent signal — a vibes-based thermometer for AI doom discourse.
P(Doom) Scoreboard
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Recent Voices
We are creating something that will be more powerful than us. I don't know a good precedent for a less intelligent thing managing a more intelligent thing.
— Geoffrey Hinton, Nobel Prize Lecture, Dec 2024
If you're not worried about AI safety, you're not paying attention.
— Sen. Blumenthal, Senate AI Hearing, 2024
The probability of doom is high enough that we should be working very hard to reduce it.
— Yoshua Bengio, MILA Talk, 2024