DOOM LEVEL
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Latest Headlines
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Alignment to Evil
via LessWrong AI [4] — One seemingly-necessary condition for a research organization that creates artificial superintelligence (ASI) to eventually lead to a utopia1 is that the organization has a commitment to the common good. ASI can rearrange the world to hit any narrow target, and if the…
How will we do SFT on models with opaque reasoning?
via Alignment Forum [1] — Current LLMs externalize lots of their reasoning in human interpretable language. This reasoning is sometimes unfaithful, sometimes strange and concerning, and LLMs can do somewhat impressive reasoning without using CoT, but my overall impression is that CoT currently is a…
New video from Palisade Research: No One Understands Why AI Works
via LessWrong AI — Palisade Research have released out a long-form video about the history of AI and how no one understands modern AI systems. The video was made by Petr Lebedev, Palisade's Science Communication lead. The main goal is to get people to understand what “AIs aren’t programmed, they’re…
AI #156 Part 2: Errors in Rhetoric
via Substack Zvi — Things that are being pushed into the future right now:
Measles cases are rising. Other vaccine-preventable infections could be next.
via MIT Technology Review — There’s a measles outbreak happening close to where I live. Since the start of this year, 34 cases have been confirmed in Enfield, a northern borough of London. Most of those affected are children under the age of 11. One in five have needed hospital treatment. It’s another worrying development for
EU AI Act Enters Into Force
via PDOOM100 Editorial [8] — World first comprehensive AI regulation takes effect, classifying AI systems by risk level.
International AI Safety Report Published
via PDOOM100 Editorial [14] — First international scientific assessment of AI risks flags potential catastrophic outcomes.
Bletchley Park AI Safety Summit
via PDOOM100 Editorial [15] — 28 countries sign declaration acknowledging AI existential risks at historic summit.
Biden Executive Order on AI Safety
via PDOOM100 Editorial [10] — Executive Order 14110 establishes federal AI safety standards and red-team testing requirements.
Senate AI Insight Forums Begin
via PDOOM100 Editorial [5] — Bipartisan Senate forums convene tech leaders and researchers to shape US AI policy.
Live Doom Meter
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0% — We're fine
100% — GG
The Doom Meter is a composite score derived from prediction markets and feed sentiment, updated daily.
70%
Prediction Markets
Weighted average of Manifold Markets questions on AI catastrophe, AGI timelines, expert surveys, and key figures. Direct doom indicators weighted higher than indirect capability markers.
30%
Feed Sentiment
Percentage of recent headlines containing high-alarm keywords (existential risk, catastrophe, extinction). Higher alarm density = higher score.
This is not a scientific estimate of existential risk. It is an opinionated, transparent signal — a vibes-based thermometer for AI doom discourse.
P(Doom) Scoreboard
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Recent Voices
We are creating something that will be more powerful than us. I don't know a good precedent for a less intelligent thing managing a more intelligent thing.
— Geoffrey Hinton, Nobel Prize Lecture, Dec 2024
If you're not worried about AI safety, you're not paying attention.
— Sen. Blumenthal, Senate AI Hearing, 2024
The probability of doom is high enough that we should be working very hard to reduce it.
— Yoshua Bengio, MILA Talk, 2024