DOOM LEVEL
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MMORF: A Multi-agent Framework for Designing Multi-objective Retrosynthesis Planning Systems
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — Multi-objective retrosynthesis planning is a critical chemistry task requiring dynamic balancing of quality, safety, and cost objectives. Language model-based multi-agent systems (MAS) offer a promising approach for this task: leveraging interactions of…
Part-Level 3D Gaussian Vehicle Generation with Joint and Hinge Axis Estimation
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — Simulation is essential for autonomous driving, yet current frameworks often model vehicles as rigid assets and fail to capture part-level articulation. With perception algorithms increasingly leveraging dynamics such as wheel steering or door opening,…
My unsupervised elicitation challenge
via Alignment Forum [999] — 6 makes. If you’re ineligible, please don’t help other people complete the challenge. I have recently started using Claude Opus 4.6 to start studying Ancient Greek. Specifically, I initially used it to grade problem sets at the end of the textbook…
Opus's Schelling Steganography Has Amplifiable Secrecy Against Weaker Eavesdroppers
via LessWrong AI [3] — Code: github.com/ElleNajt/Steganography_Wiretapping | Data: huggingface.co/datasets/lnajt/steganography-wiretapping Play the decoding game: can you eavesdrop on Claude Opus 4.6? tldr of post Frontier models (Opus and Gemini Pro) can agree on Schelling…
An Alignment Journal: Features and policies
via LessWrong AI [5] — We previously announced a forthcoming research journal for AI alignment. This cross-post from our blog describes our tentative plans for the features and policies of the journal, including experiments like reviewer compensation and reviewer abstracts. It…
OpenAI #16: A History and a Proposal
via Substack Zvi [999] — The real news today is that Anthropic has partnered with the top companies in cybersecurity to try and patch everyone’s systems to fix all the thousands of zero-day exploits found by their new model Claude Mythos.
My picture of the present in AI
via Alignment Forum [999] — In this post, I'll go through some of my best guesses for the current situation in AI as of the start of April 2026. You can think of this as a scenario forecast, but for the present (which is already uncertain!) rather than the future. I will…
[Paper] Stringological sequence prediction I
via Alignment Forum [999] — TLDR: The first in a planned series of three or more papers, which constitute the first major in-road in the compositional learning programme, and a substantial step towards bridging agent foundations theory with practical algorithms.Official…
By Strong Default, ASI Will End Liberal Democracy
via LessWrong AI [4] — The existence of liberal democracy—with rule of law, constraints on government power, and enfranchised citizens—relies on a balance of power where individual bad actors can't do too much damage. Artificial superintelligence (ASI), even if it's aligned,…
China Is Willing to Coordinate on AI Governance
via MIRI [999] — View the official memo here. China has consistently signaled a willingness to engage on global AI governance since at least 2017. This memo compiles key statements from the Chinese government and prominent figures demonstrating their desire to coordinate on the…
Housing Roundup #13: More Dakka
via Substack Zvi [999] — Build more housing where people want to live.
AIs can now often do massive easy-to-verify SWE tasks and I've updated towards shorter timelines
via Alignment Forum [999] — I've recently updated towards substantially shorter AI timelines and much faster progress in some areas. [1] The largest updates I've made are (1) an almost 2x higher probability of full AI R&D automation by EOY 2028 (I'm now a bit below 30% [2] while…
Announcing the OpenAI Safety Fellowship
via OpenAI Blog [11] — A pilot program to support independent safety and alignment research and develop the next generation of talent
Competency Questions as Executable Plans: a Controlled RAG Architecture for Cultural Heritage Storytelling
via ArXiv cs.AI [6] — The preservation of intangible cultural heritage is a critical challenge as collective memory fades over time. While Large Language Models (LLMs) offer a promising avenue for generating engaging narratives, their propensity for factual inaccuracies or…
A Comprehensive Framework for Long-Term Resiliency Investment Planning under Extreme Weather Uncertainty for Electric Utilities
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — Electric utilities must make massive capital investments in the coming years to respond to explosive growth in demand, aging assets and rising threats from extreme weather. Utilities today already have rigorous frameworks for capital planning, and there are…
Holos: A Web-Scale LLM-Based Multi-Agent System for the Agentic Web
via ArXiv cs.AI [10] — As large language models (LLM)-driven agents transition from isolated task solvers to persistent digital entities, the emergence of the Agentic Web, an ecosystem where heterogeneous agents autonomously interact and co-evolve, marks a pivotal shift toward…
Ten different ways of thinking about Gradual Disempowerment
via LessWrong AI [7] — About a year ago, we wrote a paper that coined the term “Gradual Disempowerment.”It proved to be a great success, which is terrific. A friend and colleague told me that it was the most discussed paper at DeepMind last year (selection bias, grain of salt,…
Steering Might Stop Working Soon
via LessWrong AI [5] — Steering LLMs with single-vector methods might break down soon, and by soon I mean soon enough that if you're working on steering, you should start planning for it failing now.This is particularly important for things like steering as a mitigation against…
OpenAI’s AGI boss is taking a leave of absence
via The Verge AI [6] — OpenAI is undergoing another round of C-suite changes, according to an internal memo viewed by The Verge. Fidji Simo, OpenAI's CEO of AGI deployment - who was until recently the company's CEO of Applications - says in the memo that she will be stepping…
There should be $100M grants to automate AI safety
via Alignment Forum [999] — This post reflects my personal opinion and not necessarily that of other members of Apollo Research.TLDR: I think funders should heavily incentivize AI safety work that enables spending $100M+ in compute or API budgets on automated AI labor that…
Live Doom Meter
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0% — We're fine
100% — GG
The Doom Meter is a composite score derived from prediction markets and feed sentiment, updated daily.
70%
Prediction Markets
Weighted average of Manifold Markets questions on AI catastrophe, AGI timelines, expert surveys, and key figures. Direct doom indicators weighted higher than indirect capability markers.
30%
Feed Sentiment
Percentage of recent headlines containing high-alarm keywords (existential risk, catastrophe, extinction). Higher alarm density = higher score.
This is not a scientific estimate of existential risk. It is an opinionated, transparent signal — a vibes-based thermometer for AI doom discourse.
P(Doom) Scoreboard
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Recent Voices
We are creating something that will be more powerful than us. I don't know a good precedent for a less intelligent thing managing a more intelligent thing.
— Geoffrey Hinton, Nobel Prize Lecture, Dec 2024
If you're not worried about AI safety, you're not paying attention.
— Sen. Blumenthal, Senate AI Hearing, 2024
The probability of doom is high enough that we should be working very hard to reduce it.
— Yoshua Bengio, MILA Talk, 2024