Analysis
Claude Mythos #3: Capabilities and Additions
via Substack Zvi [999] — To round out coverage of Mythos, today covers capabilities other than cyber, and anything else additional not covered by the first two posts, including new reactions and details.
AI Safety's Biggest Talent Gap Isn't Researchers. It's Generalists.
via LessWrong AI [5] — This post was cross posted to the EA ForumTL;DR: One of the largest talent gaps in AI safety is competent generalists: program managers, fieldbuilders, operators, org leaders, chiefs of staff, founders. Ambitious, competent junior people could develop the…
Political Violence Is Never Acceptable
via Substack Zvi [999] — Nor is the threat or implication of violence.
Talk English, Think Something Else
via LessWrong AI [4] — There's an adage from programming in C++ which goes something like "Yes, you write C, but you imagine the machine code as you do." I assumed this was bullshit, that nobody actually does this. Am I supposed to imagine writing the machine code, and then…
Daycare illnesses
via LessWrong AI [4] — Before I had a baby I was pretty agnostic about the idea of daycare. I could imagine various pros and cons but I didn’t have a strong overall opinion. Then I started mentioning the idea to various people. Every parent I spoke to brought up a consideration…
Catching illicit distributed training operations during an AI pause
via LessWrong AI [3] — Last year, my colleagues on MIRI’s Technical Governance Team proposed an international agreement to halt risky development of superhuman artificial intelligence until it can be done safely. The agreement would require all clusters of AI chips with more…
Pausing AI Is the Best Answer to Post-Alignment Problems
via LessWrong AI [5] — Even if we solve the AI alignment problem, we still face post-alignment problems, which are all the other existential problems [1] that AI may bring. People have identified various imposing problems that we may need to solve before developing ASI. An…
Dario probably doesn't believe in superintelligence
via LessWrong AI [6] — But I had to get 500 words out! I think the 2013 conversation is interesting reading as a piece of history, separate from the top-level question, and recommend reading that.I think many people have a relationship with Anthropic that is premised on a false…
Claude Mythos #2: Cybersecurity and Project Glasswing
via Substack Zvi [999] — Anthropic is not going to release its new most capable model, Claude Mythos, to the public any time soon.
Have we already lost? Part 2: Reasons for Doom
via LessWrong AI [9] — Written very quickly for the Inkhaven Residency.As I take the time to reflect on the state of AI Safety in early 2026, one question feels unavoidable: have we, as the AI Safety community, already lost? That is, have we passed the point of no return, after…
Claude Mythos: The System Card
via Substack Zvi [999] — Claude Mythos is different.
Have we already lost? Part 1: The Plan in 2024
via LessWrong AI [5] — Written very quickly for the Inkhaven Residency.As I take the time to reflect on the state of AI Safety in early 2026, one question feels unavoidable: have we, as the AI Safety community, already lost? That is, have we passed the point of no return, after…
101 Humans of New York on the Risks of AI
via LessWrong AI [4] — Nobody has ever done an in person door to door survey about AI risks[1]. What do people really think about AI? Like really? There have been some surveys on the risks from AI. But there’s a real difference between looking at numbers on page vs. the feeling…
AI #163: Mythos Quest
via Substack Zvi [999] — There exists an AI model, Claude Mythos, that has discovered critical safety vulnerabilities in every major operating system and browser.
Opus's Schelling Steganography Has Amplifiable Secrecy Against Weaker Eavesdroppers
via LessWrong AI [3] — Code: github.com/ElleNajt/Steganography_Wiretapping | Data: huggingface.co/datasets/lnajt/steganography-wiretapping Play the decoding game: can you eavesdrop on Claude Opus 4.6? tldr of post Frontier models (Opus and Gemini Pro) can agree on Schelling…
An Alignment Journal: Features and policies
via LessWrong AI [5] — We previously announced a forthcoming research journal for AI alignment. This cross-post from our blog describes our tentative plans for the features and policies of the journal, including experiments like reviewer compensation and reviewer abstracts. It…
OpenAI #16: A History and a Proposal
via Substack Zvi [999] — The real news today is that Anthropic has partnered with the top companies in cybersecurity to try and patch everyone’s systems to fix all the thousands of zero-day exploits found by their new model Claude Mythos.
By Strong Default, ASI Will End Liberal Democracy
via LessWrong AI [4] — The existence of liberal democracy—with rule of law, constraints on government power, and enfranchised citizens—relies on a balance of power where individual bad actors can't do too much damage. Artificial superintelligence (ASI), even if it's aligned,…
Housing Roundup #13: More Dakka
via Substack Zvi [999] — Build more housing where people want to live.
Ten different ways of thinking about Gradual Disempowerment
via LessWrong AI [7] — About a year ago, we wrote a paper that coined the term “Gradual Disempowerment.”It proved to be a great success, which is terrific. A friend and colleague told me that it was the most discussed paper at DeepMind last year (selection bias, grain of salt,…
Live Doom Meter
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0% — We're fine
100% — GG
The Doom Meter is a composite score derived from prediction markets and feed sentiment, updated daily.
70%
Prediction Markets
Weighted average of Manifold Markets questions on AI catastrophe, AGI timelines, expert surveys, and key figures. Direct doom indicators weighted higher than indirect capability markers.
30%
Feed Sentiment
Percentage of recent headlines containing high-alarm keywords (existential risk, catastrophe, extinction). Higher alarm density = higher score.
This is not a scientific estimate of existential risk. It is an opinionated, transparent signal — a vibes-based thermometer for AI doom discourse.
P(Doom) Scoreboard
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