GLM-5.2 Is The New Best Open Model
via Substack Zvi [999] — GLM-5.2 arrived last week.Read
Analysis
Recent evidence, sources and high-relevance stories in this PDOOM topic.
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A brief list of ways AI safety efforts could be net negative
via LessWrong AI [5] — Here’s Holden Karnofsky:I tend to think it’s worse than 51/49. I tend to think we’re always going to be prone to overestimate how robustly good our actions are. And the more we learn about all the galaxy-brained considerations that one should have had in…Read
The Invisible Side of AI Governance
via LessWrong AI [3] — Tldr: Most strategic writing on AI governance on LessWrong describes the outsider game, which is most often visible: press, statements, open letters. Here I want to describe the other, invisible half: the insider work within ministerial cabinets and…Read
AI Safety Ecosystem Research notes
via LessWrong AI [5] — These are some personal notes taken and later dressed up a bit to make into a post. Dunno how much value is here for people already familiar with the AI Safety Ecosystem.Over several weeks in the spring of 2026 I attempted to map out the entire AI Safety…Read
Introduction: Gaussian Natural Latents
via LessWrong AI [4] — Short introductory post for my research direction: Gaussian Natural Latents. I explain the motivation and give a preview of the forthcoming results.The Natural Abstractions agenda, in my view, is a promising research program that asks important theoretical…Read
Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5: Capabilities
via Substack Zvi [999] — Only three days after the release of Claude Fable 5, Anthropic was forced by the United States Government to make it unavailable, when a jailbreak was brought to its attention, rather than the previous situation of ‘yes obviously experts can jailbreak…Read
On “Model Organisms”
via LessWrong AI [5] — This post was written while working for Arcadia Impact's Alignment Team (and grew out of an internal talk I gave) but is my own opinion and not theirs. I am grateful for feedback from Daniel Tan and the rest of the team.This post was originally going to be…Read
Your Model Organisms Might Be Fried
via LessWrong AI [7] — Context: We are the ‘model motivations’ team at Arcadia Alignment. We aim to build a science of ‘model intentions’, unifying insights from personas and other empirical evidence. In this post, we’ll outline the need for much better model organisms and how…Read
Effective Altruism will be unbundled
via LessWrong AI [5] — From the end of high school to after my sophomore year of college, I considered myself an effective altruist. I was on the board of my college EA club, ran an EA intro fellowship, and went to EA retreats. I was vegetarian, regularly donated to GiveWell,…Read
AI #173: AI Pauses
via Substack Zvi [999] — A lot of things are always happening.Read
Several frontier models are substantially prefill aware
via LessWrong AI [3] — This blog post discusses work in a recently-published paper. However, this blogpost was primarily written by Parv Mahajan and Andy Wang, and several of the more speculative takes may not represent the all-things-considered view of the entire team.Link to…Read
Alignement pretraining could backfire
via LessWrong AI [3] — There has been recent interest in generating synthetic documents to upsample examples of aligned AI during LLM pretraining. See, for instance, Geodesic's Alignment Pretraining paper or Anthropic's "Teaching Claude Why."I worry that this strategy can work…Read
The Once And Future Fable #3: Fix This Code
via Substack Zvi [999] — The mainstream media continues to sleep on the most important story in the world.Read
Fable and Mythos: Model Welfare
via Substack Zvi [999] — Fable and Mythos are currently unavailable, but likely will return within a few weeks. I will continue to cover that fiasco, but in the meantime I will also finish my review of Fable, as if it were available, including use of the present tense.Read
A frontier AI company should shut down
via LessWrong AI [4] — Prior discussion: niplav's shortform (2025); Planning for Extreme AI Risks (2025) by Joshua Clymer A frontier AI company (any one, I don't care which) should close shop and make an announcement along the lines of: Powerful AI could end the human race. We…Read
The Once And Future Fable #2
via Substack Zvi [999] — On Friday evening the United States Government has forced Anthropic to take down all access to Fable and Mythos.Read
American Government Takes Down Claude Fable
via Substack Zvi [999] — No good policy gets announced shortly after 5pm eastern on a Friday.Read
The term “AGI” is almost useless at this point [Linkpost]
via LessWrong AI [7] — The reason I wanted to make this linkpost now rather than some other time is because discussions over AGI and whether or not LLMs are or aren't AGI, and the point of the linkpost is that the term AGI is for our purposes useless at this point, because we…Read
Simulating Simulators
via LessWrong AI [3] — Author’s I promised myself that when labs moved on to focusing on interpretability vector activations in place of reasoning traces for what invariably gets Goodharted, that it’d be a necessary disclosure as the risks in what might get trampled over…Read
Citations Needed: Magic Encyclopedias to Save the World
via LessWrong AI [4] — Last week FLF launched a competition “to find the best workflows and methodologies for using AI to produce reliable, trustworthy knowledge bases”. I had (and have ongoing) a substantial role in that effort. Why do I think it’s so important? It’s a lot of…Read
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AI-risk positions
Historical statements with original sources. A qualitative position is not a numeric probability. Dates refer to the cited statement, not a current estimate. Reviewed September 10, 2026.
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