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Analysis

Recent evidence, sources and high-relevance stories in this PDOOM topic.

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Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

Reward Hacking at the 1937 World’s Fair

via LessWrong AI [3] — The "Paris 1937 World’s Fair" was a dick measuring contest. At the time, the world was on the verge of the worst war in history. The fair was an opportunity for powers to flex and intimidate each other. Who has more industrial might, more sophisticated…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5: The System Card

via Substack Zvi [999] — First things first: Claude Fable 5 is the new best publicly available model.

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

PSA: Almost nobody is working on alignment

via LessWrong AI [9] — People often assume that a large fraction of the AI safety community works on alignment. As far as we're aware, this is not true. Most people are not working on making sure superintelligent AIs are aligned with human values or follow human…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

AI #172: The First Fable

via Substack Zvi [999] — A lot happened this week, including a great trip out to Lighthaven.

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

You Can Catch Sleeper Agents by Teaching Another Model to Imitate Them

via LessWrong AI [4] — Detecting Hidden Behaviors in LLMs via Activation-matched Finetuning — preprint, 2026. [Paper] [Code]TLDR. Given a model with some unknown, abnormal behavior (backdoors, censorship, reward hacking, ...), construct an aligned reference by training a clean…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models

via LessWrong AI [3] — (see full author list at the end)About a year ago, METR showed that the length of tasks frontier models can reliably complete doubles every few months. A related safety-relevant question is this: what length of tasks can models complete without any chain…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

Three Labs With a Plan and A Memorandum

via Substack Zvi [999] — The big story today is the release of Claude Fable 5, the version of Claude Mythos that Anthropic believes they can safely distribute to the people.

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

Against Corrigibility

via LessWrong AI [4] — A “corrigible” agent, per the LW wiki, is:…one that doesn’t interfere with what we would intuitively see as attempts to ’correct’ the agent, or ’correct’ our mistakes in building it; and permits these ’corrections’ despite the apparent instrumentally…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

What if Anthropic unilaterally paused capabilities development right now?

via LessWrong AI [6] — In their new post on recursive self-improvement, Anthropic argues that a pause in frontier AI development is needed, but unfortunately, they can't pause on their own, because of less cautious actors:We believe it would be good for the world to have the…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

Preparing for Warning Shots to Catalyze International Cooperation on AGI Risks

via LessWrong AI [4] — SummaryThis is a write-up on preparing for warning shots to catalyze international cooperation on AGI risks, and the corollary list of projects one could pursue. We argue we must first (1) understand types of warning shots, then (2) prepare to catch them.…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

Learnings from starting an AI safety research team

via LessWrong AI [9] — This post’s goal is to distill our takeaways from building a new research team over the past four months. We describe some context about our team, how it came about, and then describe the lessons learned.Since AI safety is becoming more and more…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

OpenAI Offers A New Policy Blueprint

via Substack Zvi [999] — Right after a new Executive Order seems like an excellent time to offer OpenAI’s new document: Democratic Governance of Frontier AI: A Blueprint For A Federal Framework.

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

Rohin Shah on AGI Safety

via LessWrong AI [6] — Rohin Shah recently had an interview on 80000 hours on his views on AGI Safety and his work at Google DeepMind. I'm posting the transcript below to encourage further discussion. I think the interview is interesting though I disagree on a bunch of topics,…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

Sixteen schemes for AI safety

via LessWrong AI [5] — These days, I often run across whippersnappers excited to do something for AI safety — but aren’t quite sure what. One of the fun things about the Future Fund era were the big lists of project ideas; as we enter a new era of crazy money sloshing around, it…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

AI #171: False Flag

via Substack Zvi [999] — This was the week of Claude Opus 4.8.

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

Society Explained: a tool for efficiently exploring >100 theories of society

via LessWrong AI [3] — There are many competing theories of how society does and should function, from Karl Marx and Adam Smith to Steven Pinker and Eliezer Yudkowsky. These theories are often hard to understand - you may need to read an entire book (or dozens of articles) to…

Zac Boring 5 months ago Analysis

Trump Signs Executive Order For AI Testing Prior To Frontier Model Releases

via Substack Zvi [999] — Last week we were expecting an Executive Order on Thursday.

Zac Boring 5 months ago Analysis

China won’t win the AI race but would it be much worse if it did?

via LessWrong AI [4] — It seems to me accepted wisdom in the West that the US owned labs must “beat” the Chinese labs in the race for AGI/ASI. Even those who don’t think there will be a winner, that essentially the race is to see which country’s AI will kill/disempower us first,…

Zac Boring 5 months ago Analysis

Why Even Experts Don’t Know What to Do About AI Risk

via LessWrong AI [9] — AI Safety veteran Holden Karnofsky thinks there’s a 49% chance his actions are making things worse.[1]In 2025, Jesse Clifton even stepped down as the executive director of the Center on Long-Term risk because of similar reasons.Even top AI Safety…

Zac Boring 5 months ago Analysis

Claude Opus 4.8: Capabilities and Reactions

via Substack Zvi [999] — You need a lot of data points to understand a new model, and what you have.

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AI-risk positions

Historical statements with original sources. A qualitative position is not a numeric probability. Dates refer to the cited statement, not a current estimate. Reviewed September 10, 2026.

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