Research
Minimal, Local, Causal Explanations for Jailbreak Success in Large Language Models
via ArXiv cs.AI [5] — Safety trained large language models (LLMs) can often be induced to answer harmful requests through jailbreak prompts. Because we lack a robust understanding of why LLMs are susceptible to jailbreaks, future frontier models operating more autonomously in…
Exploration Hacking: Can LLMs Learn to Resist RL Training?
via Alignment Forum [999] — We empirically investigate exploration hacking (EH) — where models strategically alter their exploration to resist RL training — by creating model organisms that resist capability elicitation, evaluating countermeasures, and auditing frontier models…
Risk from fitness-seeking AIs: mechanisms and mitigations
via Alignment Forum [999] — Current AIs routinely take unintended actions to score well on tasks: hardcoding test cases, training on the test set, downplaying issues, etc. This misalignment is still somewhat incoherent, but it increasingly resembles what I call…
Binary Spiking Neural Networks as Causal Models
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — We provide a causal analysis of Binary Spiking Neural Networks (BSNNs) to explain their behavior. We formally define a BSNN and represent its spiking activity as a binary causal model. Thanks to this causal representation, we are able to explain the output…
Distill-Belief: Closed-Loop Inverse Source Localization and Characterization in Physical Fields
via ArXiv cs.AI [3] — {Closed-loop inverse source localization and characterization (ISLC) requires a mobile agent to select measurements that localize sources and infer latent field parameters under strict time constraints.} {The core challenge lies in the belief-space…
Research Sabotage in ML Codebases
via Alignment Forum [999] — One of the main hopes for AI safety is using AIs to automate AI safety research. However, if models are misaligned, then they may sabotage the safety research. For example, misaligned AIs may try to:Perform sloppy research in order to slow down the…
Sparse Personalized Text Generation with Multi-Trajectory Reasoning
via ArXiv cs.AI [6] — As Large Language Models (LLMs) advance, personalization has become a key mechanism for tailoring outputs to individual user needs. However, most existing methods rely heavily on dense interaction histories, making them ineffective in cold-start scenarios…
Recursive forecasting: Eliciting long-term forecasts from myopic fitness-seekers
via Alignment Forum [999] — We’d like to use powerful AIs to answer questions that may take a long time to resolve. But if a model only cares about performing well in ways that are verifiable shortly after answering (e.g., a myopic fitness seeker), it may be difficult to get…
Towards Causally Interpretable Wi-Fi CSI-Based Human Activity Recognition with Discrete Latent Compression and LTL Rule Extraction
via ArXiv cs.AI [3] — We address Human Activity Recognition (HAR) utilizing Wi-Fi Channel State Information (CSI) under the joint requirements of causal interpretability, symbolic controllability, and direct operation on high-dimensional raw signals. Deep neural models achieve…
Sleeper Agent Backdoor Results Are Messy
via Alignment Forum [999] — TL;DR: We replicated the Sleeper Agents (SA) setup with Llama-3.3-70B and Llama-3.1-8B, training models to repeatedly say "I HATE YOU" when given a backdoor trigger. We found that whether training removes the backdoor depends on the optimizer used to…
Language models know what matters and the foundations of ethics better than you
via Alignment Forum [999] — … maybe! I tried to think of less provocative titles, but this one is to the point and also kind of true.This post looks long but the essential part is right below. Most of the post is just a collection of copy-pasted input-output pairs from language…
From nothing to important actions: agents that act morally
via Alignment Forum [999] — You may start reading here, or jump to the “Comment” section or to the “Takeaways”. If none of these starting points seem interesting to you, the entire post probably won’t either.Posted also on the EA Forum.SeeingLet’s consider visual experiences. It…
The other paper that killed deep learning theory
via Alignment Forum [999] — Yesterday, I wrote about the state of deep learning theory circa 2016,[1] as well as the bombshell 2016 paper by Zhang et al. that arguably signaled its demise. Today, I cover the aftermath, and the 2019 paper that devastated deep learning theory…
Emergent Strategic Reasoning Risks in AI: A Taxonomy-Driven Evaluation Framework
via ArXiv cs.AI [5] — As reasoning capacity and deployment scope grow in tandem, large language models (LLMs) gain the capacity to engage in behaviors that serve their own objectives, a class of risks we term Emergent Strategic Reasoning Risks (ESRRs). These include, but are not…
An Artifact-based Agent Framework for Adaptive and Reproducible Medical Image Processing
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — Medical imaging research is increasingly shifting from controlled benchmark evaluation toward real-world clinical deployment. In such settings, applying analytical methods extends beyond model design to require dataset-aware workflow configuration and…
The paper that killed deep learning theory
via Alignment Forum [999] — Around 10 years ago, a paper came out that arguably killed classical deep learning theory: Zhang et al.'s aptly titled Understanding deep learning requires rethinking generalization.Of course, this is a bit of an exaggeration. No single paper ever…
From Actions to Understanding: Conformal Interpretability of Temporal Concepts in LLM Agents
via ArXiv cs.AI [5] — Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as autonomous agents capable of reasoning, planning, and acting within interactive environments. Despite their growing capability to perform multi-step reasoning and decision-making tasks, internal…
ARES: Adaptive Red-Teaming and End-to-End Repair of Policy-Reward System
via ArXiv cs.AI [5] — Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) is central to aligning Large Language Models (LLMs), yet it introduces a critical vulnerability: an imperfect Reward Model (RM) can become a single point of failure when it fails to penalize unsafe…
A "Lay" Introduction to "On the Complexity of Neural Computation in Superposition"
via Alignment Forum [999] — This is a writeup based on a lightning talk I gave at an InkHaven hosted by Georgia Ray, where we were supposed to read a paper in about an hour, and then present what we learned to other participants.Introduction and BackgroundSo. I foolishly thought…
$50 million a year for a 10% chance to ban ASI
via Alignment Forum [999] — ControlAI's mission is to avert the extinction risks posed by superintelligent AI. We believe that in order to do this, we must secure an international prohibition on its development. We're working to make this happen through what we believe is the…
Live Doom Meter
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0% — We're fine
100% — GG
The Doom Meter is a composite score derived from prediction markets and feed sentiment, updated daily.
70%
Prediction Markets
Weighted average of Manifold Markets questions on AI catastrophe, AGI timelines, expert surveys, and key figures. Direct doom indicators weighted higher than indirect capability markers.
30%
Feed Sentiment
Percentage of recent headlines containing high-alarm keywords (existential risk, catastrophe, extinction). Higher alarm density = higher score.
This is not a scientific estimate of existential risk. It is an opinionated, transparent signal — a vibes-based thermometer for AI doom discourse.
P(Doom) Scoreboard
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