Research
$50 million a year for a 10% chance to ban ASI
via Alignment Forum [999] — ControlAI's mission is to avert the extinction risks posed by superintelligent AI. We believe that in order to do this, we must secure an international prohibition on its development. We're working to make this happen through what we believe is the…
Governing the Agentic Enterprise: A Governance Maturity Model for Managing AI Agent Sprawl in Business Operations
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — The rapid adoption of agentic AI in enterprise business operations--autonomous systems capable of planning, reasoning, and executing multi-step workflows--has created an urgent governance crisis. Organizations face uncontrolled agent sprawl: the…
LLM Reasoning Is Latent, Not the Chain of Thought
via ArXiv cs.AI [5] — This position paper argues that large language model (LLM) reasoning should be studied as latent-state trajectory formation rather than as faithful surface chain-of-thought (CoT). This matters because claims about faithfulness, interpretability, reasoning…
Prompted CoT Early Exit Undermines the Monitoring Benefits of CoT Uncontrollability
via Alignment Forum [999] — Code: github.com/ElleNajt/controllability tldr: Yueh-Han et al. (2026) showed that models have a harder time making their chain of thought follow user instruction compared to controlling their response (the non-thinking, user-facing output). Their CoT…
You can only build safe ASI if ASI is globally banned
via Alignment Forum [999] — Sometimes people make various suggestions that we should simply build "safe" artificial Superintelligence (ASI), rather than the presumably "unsafe" kind.[1]There are various flavors of “safe” people suggest.Sometimes they suggest building “aligned”…
Optimizing Earth Observation Satellite Schedules under Unknown Operational Constraints: An Active Constraint Acquisition Approach
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — Earth Observation (EO) satellite scheduling (deciding which imaging tasks to perform and when) is a well-studied combinatorial optimization problem. Existing methods typically assume that the operational constraint model is fully specified in advance. In…
Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me
via Alignment Forum [999] — Many people—especially AI company employees [1] —believe current AI systems are well-aligned in the sense of genuinely trying to do what they're supposed to do (e.g., following their spec or constitution, obeying a reasonable interpretation of…
OpeFlo: Automated UX Evaluation via Simulated Human Web Interaction with GUI Grounding
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — Evaluating web usability typically requires time-consuming user studies and expert reviews, which often limits iteration speed during product development, especially for small teams and agile workflows. We present OpenFlo, a user-experience evaluation agent…
Anthropic repeatedly accidentally trained against the CoT, demonstrating inadequate processes
via Alignment Forum [999] — It turns out that Anthropic accidentally trained against the chain of thought of Claude Mythos Preview in around 8% of training episodes. This is at least the second independent incident in which Anthropic accidentally exposed their model's CoT to the…
Summary: AI Governance to Avoid Extinction
via MIRI [999] — With AI capabilities rapidly increasing, humans appear close to developing AI systems that are better than human experts across all domains. This raises a series of questions about how the world will—and should—respond. In the research paper AI Governance to…
Sustained Impact of Agentic Personalisation in Marketing: A Longitudinal Case Study
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — In consumer applications, Customer Relationship Management (CRM) has traditionally relied on the manual optimisation of static, rule-based messaging strategies. While adaptive and autonomous learning systems offer the promise of scalable personalisation, it…
OpenKedge: Governing Agentic Mutation with Execution-Bound Safety and Evidence Chains
via ArXiv cs.AI [3] — The rise of autonomous AI agents exposes a fundamental flaw in API-centric architectures: probabilistic systems directly execute state mutations without sufficient context, coordination, or safety guarantees. We introduce OpenKedge, a protocol that…
SymptomWise: A Deterministic Reasoning Layer for Reliable and Efficient AI Systems
via ArXiv cs.AI [3] — AI-driven symptom analysis systems face persistent challenges in reliability, interpretability, and hallucination. End-to-end generative approaches often lack traceability and may produce unsupported or inconsistent diagnostic outputs in safety-critical…
MedGemma 1.5 Technical Report
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — We introduce MedGemma 1.5 4B, the latest model in the MedGemma collection. MedGemma 1.5 expands on MedGemma 1 by integrating additional capabilities: high-dimensional medical imaging (CT/MRI volumes and histopathology whole slide images), anatomical…
MMORF: A Multi-agent Framework for Designing Multi-objective Retrosynthesis Planning Systems
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — Multi-objective retrosynthesis planning is a critical chemistry task requiring dynamic balancing of quality, safety, and cost objectives. Language model-based multi-agent systems (MAS) offer a promising approach for this task: leveraging interactions of…
Part-Level 3D Gaussian Vehicle Generation with Joint and Hinge Axis Estimation
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — Simulation is essential for autonomous driving, yet current frameworks often model vehicles as rigid assets and fail to capture part-level articulation. With perception algorithms increasingly leveraging dynamics such as wheel steering or door opening,…
My unsupervised elicitation challenge
via Alignment Forum [999] — 6 makes. If you’re ineligible, please don’t help other people complete the challenge. I have recently started using Claude Opus 4.6 to start studying Ancient Greek. Specifically, I initially used it to grade problem sets at the end of the textbook…
My picture of the present in AI
via Alignment Forum [999] — In this post, I'll go through some of my best guesses for the current situation in AI as of the start of April 2026. You can think of this as a scenario forecast, but for the present (which is already uncertain!) rather than the future. I will…
[Paper] Stringological sequence prediction I
via Alignment Forum [999] — TLDR: The first in a planned series of three or more papers, which constitute the first major in-road in the compositional learning programme, and a substantial step towards bridging agent foundations theory with practical algorithms.Official…
China Is Willing to Coordinate on AI Governance
via MIRI [999] — View the official memo here. China has consistently signaled a willingness to engage on global AI governance since at least 2017. This memo compiles key statements from the Chinese government and prominent figures demonstrating their desire to coordinate on the…
Live Doom Meter
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0% — We're fine
100% — GG
The Doom Meter is a composite score derived from prediction markets and feed sentiment, updated daily.
70%
Prediction Markets
Weighted average of Manifold Markets questions on AI catastrophe, AGI timelines, expert surveys, and key figures. Direct doom indicators weighted higher than indirect capability markers.
30%
Feed Sentiment
Percentage of recent headlines containing high-alarm keywords (existential risk, catastrophe, extinction). Higher alarm density = higher score.
This is not a scientific estimate of existential risk. It is an opinionated, transparent signal — a vibes-based thermometer for AI doom discourse.
P(Doom) Scoreboard
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