Twenty Years from RSI to Takeoff: Slow Learning, Scaling Slowdown, Industrial Explosion
Key takeaway
Industrial explosion is what will make the next-model building loops (and thus learning) with LLMs 1000x faster by about 2050, if indeed the slow-learning prosaic RSI becomes AGI before the big compute buildout slowdown of 2032+ that is already starting.
Why it's on PDOOM
PDOOM selected this story for its capabilities signals: AGI, Scaling.
AGIScalingFrom LessWrong AI
Industrial explosion is what will make the next-model building loops (and thus learning) with LLMs 1000x faster by about 2050, if indeed the slow-learning prosaic RSI becomes AGI before the big compute buildout slowdown of 2032+ that is already starting. This puts an upper bound on how long it takes to invent ASI that sets off software-only singularity, implementing efficient online learning and fixing all the other hobblings of the likely near-future AGI technology (LLMs/pretraining/RL). The in
By Vladimir_Nesov