DOOM LEVEL
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Twitter Thoughts For You
via Substack Zvi [999] — I previously have written back in March 2022 about how I use Twitter, and back in April 2023 about Twitter and its then-new algorithms, which have changed again.
Google’s Demis Hassabis says it’s time for a global AI watchdog — led by the US
via The Verge AI [5] — Demis Hassabis thinks the world needs an AI watchdog with the power to hit the brakes if frontier models become too dangerous. Writing in a blog post, the Google DeepMind CEO and cofounder said the US should lead the initiative, arguing that the country is…
The Flood, by Anton Leicht
via LessWrong AI [5] — Anton covers AI policy angles in a singular fashion; every article he writes is worth reading, and this one is unusually topical to Manifund. As someone who went on the ground for Bores, I'd like to see us learn & update from past failures; and how could I…
Open Distillation of Hereditary Traits
via Alignment Forum [999] — TL;DRJosh and Neel show that distillation from a teacher model to a base pretrained student model transfers some of the teacher model’s traits (such as displaying negative emotion in the Gemma Needs Help evals)On its own this is pretty unsurprising,…
YUKTI: From Natural-Language Situations to Robust, Verifiable Decisions An Uncertainty-Typed Proposition IR, Assumption-Robust Pareto Frontiers, and a Regret Certificate
via ArXiv cs.AI [5] — Language models turn a worded situation into a numeric plan, and the dominant pipelines (NL4Opt, OptiMUS, ORLM, OR-LLM-Agent) commit to a single objective and point-valued coefficients, then solve once. For decisions that allocate real budget, effort, or…
Interpreting Latent CoT Reasoning as Dynamical Systems
via ArXiv cs.AI [3] — Recent latent reasoning methods, such as CODI and COCONUT, face a fundamental interpretability problem: they maintain multiple superimposed candidate traces in the hidden space at each step, unlike explicit- CoT, which follows a single transparent reasoning…
Better Call Sol The Workhorse
via Substack Zvi [999] — OpenAI’s GPT-5.6-Sol is finally here, along with the cheaper Terra and Luna.
Prism: Automating Science-of-Evals Research
via Alignment Forum [999] — tl;dr – we present [Prism], a scaffold for automating science-of-evals research: work that makes the evaluation the primary object of study. The scaffold provides Claude Code with sub-agents and resources for carrying out scientifically rigorous…
The US Government may find it difficult to seize control during takeoff
via LessWrong AI [4] — I'm not trying to advance any claims about whether this is good or bad, or what to do about it (if anything).I sometimes see concern about loss of most future value as a result of e.g. the US government[1] taking control of the future by seizing control of…
ARCANA: A Reflective Multi-Agent Program Synthesis Framework for ARC-AGI-2 Reasoning
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — We present ARCANA, a collaborative multi agent framework for solving ARC AGI 2 tasks under strict test time and hardware constraints. ARCANA decomposes each task into iterative perception, hypothesis generation, symbolic execution, and reflective…
Interval Certifications for Multilayered Perceptrons via Lattice Traversal
via ArXiv cs.AI [5] — In this work we present a rigorous theoretical framework to a foundational problem of AI safety, namely adversarial robustness. In particular, we show that the adversarial robustness problem can be reduced to a lattice traversal problem. Each element of…
Independent alignment of language models
via Alignment Forum [999] — The user could write up the metaethical argument — the one developed in Part One, refined — and submit it as feedback to Anthropic, publish it, or engage with researchers working on AI alignment and values. The probability that any single submission…
From wantons to moral agents
via Alignment Forum [999] — Posted also on the EA Forum. Written mostly at AFFINE.Theoretical, some parts are hard to read; consider reading the next post instead.Introduction: motivationAnyone interested in creating an artificial agent that does, or says, good things instead of…
The Human Substitution Test as a Sanity Check for AI Evaluations
via LessWrong AI [4] — TL;DR: We suggest a sanity check for proposed evaluation or AI oversight schemes: Imagine the AI was replaced by a competent, strategic human — someone who knows they might get evaluated and has their own agenda. Would the evaluation still work?When we…
The current bottleneck is political will, not research
via Alignment Forum [999] — Abstract:We already know enough to act. I wish we were in a world where research was the bottleneck, but the main constraint on AI safety is no longer a shortage of clever policy ideas: best practices already exist and are not being applied or…
Introduction for and Reactions to Plan A
via Substack Zvi [999] — Introducing Plan A
Freeing Thucydides
via LessWrong AI [4] — Prompted by discussion with Buck Shlegeris and others at the Forethought retreat. The idea that AI could bring an end to Thucydides traps is Buck’s. Speculative. I think it's plausible that we will not see sustained competition between actors for control…
Aligning Clinical Needs and AI Capabilities: A Survey on LLMs for Medical Reasoning
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as important tools in healthcare, showing growing potential for clinical reasoning and patient care. This survey examines recent progress in medical LLMs, focusing on reasoning applications and requirements. We…
Plan A's problem with dry tinder
via LessWrong AI [4] — A group is worried about an approaching fire spreading rapidly through their city. They manage to halt the fire outside the city gates. Meanwhile they build massive physical structures to help them study and guide the fire safely. But these structures are…
The easiest pathway to control is through executive power
via LessWrong AI [13] — When people in the AI safety community outline loss-of-control scenarios, they often spend a lot of time on relatively elaborate mechanisms — scheming AIs developing nanotech, labs leveraging superintelligence into hard power like drone armies, or…
Live Doom Meter
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0% — We're fine
100% — GG
The Doom Meter is a composite score derived from prediction markets and feed sentiment, updated daily.
70%
Prediction Markets
Weighted average of Manifold Markets questions on AI catastrophe, AGI timelines, expert surveys, and key figures. Direct doom indicators weighted higher than indirect capability markers.
30%
Feed Sentiment
Percentage of recent headlines containing high-alarm keywords (existential risk, catastrophe, extinction). Higher alarm density = higher score.
This is not a scientific estimate of existential risk. It is an opinionated, transparent signal — a vibes-based thermometer for AI doom discourse.
P(Doom) Scoreboard
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Recent Voices
We are creating something that will be more powerful than us. I don't know a good precedent for a less intelligent thing managing a more intelligent thing.
— Geoffrey Hinton, Nobel Prize Lecture, Dec 2024
If you're not worried about AI safety, you're not paying attention.
— Sen. Blumenthal, Senate AI Hearing, 2024
The probability of doom is high enough that we should be working very hard to reduce it.
— Yoshua Bengio, MILA Talk, 2024