DOOM LEVEL
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The Pope isn’t AGI-pilled
via The Verge AI [6] — On Monday, Pope Leo XIV unveiled an encyclical letter addressing the societal implications of artificial intelligence. The letter, titled Magnifica Humanitas, warned that the "use of AI is never a purely technical matter: when it enters processes that…
Your Agents Are Aging Too: Agent Lifespan Engineering for Deployed Systems
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — Long-lived AI agents are increasingly deployed as persistent operational systems, yet they are still evaluated like freshly initialized models. Day-one benchmarks miss a basic systems question: how long does an agent remain reliable after deployment? Even…
RTMH: Pope Leo's Magnifica Humanitas on AI
via Substack Zvi [999] — His holiness has spoken, frequently about AI.
Cognitive Security as an AI Safety Cause Area
via LessWrong AI [5] — As AI systems become more capable, the cognitive security of humans will be increasingly at risk. By cognitive security, I mean the ability of humans to maintain control over their beliefs and actions.Cognitive security could be compromised in several…
Linkpost: New Vatican Encyclical on AI Governance
via LessWrong AI [9] — Pope Leo XIV has released a new, 42k-word encyclical laying out the Vatican's position on many AI safety topics. You can read the full thing here, or read the Vatican's press release here, or coverage in the NY Times, or perhaps consider having an LLM read…
We made a map of the doom debate
via LessWrong AI [5] — This was produced as a part of the AI Safety Camp 2026 "Assumptions of the Doom Debate" project, led by Sean Herrington, who was also the lead author on this post. The other participants have equal contributions and are listed in no particular order. It is…
Will we really put data centers in space?
via LessWrong AI [3] — AbstractSeveral major technology companies have announced plans to operate AI data centers in orbit. Elon Musk recently claimed: “the lowest-cost place to put AI will be space […] within two years, maybe three.” If a meaningful fraction of new AI compute…
PLA Daily Translation: Reflections on Warfare Brought by AGI
via LessWrong AI [4] — Source“Reflections on Warfare Brought by AGI” (AGI带来的战争思考)Source: PLA Daily (解放军报)Date: January 21, 2025Authors: Rong Ming (荣明), Hu Xiaofeng (胡晓峰)IntroductionPlease feel free to skip to the translation, about halfway down, though I would recommend reading…
Out-of-Context Reasoning (OOCR) in LLMs: A Short Primer and Reading List
via LessWrong AI [6] — Out-of-context reasoning (OOCR) is a concept relevant to LLM generalization and AI alignment. Also available as a PDF. Contents What is OOCR? Examples Papers Videos What is out-of-context reasoning for LLMs? It's when an LLM reaches a conclusion that…
Learned Chain-of-Thought Obfuscation Generalises to Unseen Tasks
via LessWrong AI [3] — TL;DRTraining against a CoT or summary-only monitor can lead to obfuscation of dangerous reasoning in unseen tasks. This strengthens the “don’t train against a monitor” claims.Figure 1. A Two prior results: penalising the CoT or final response produces…
Gemini 3.5 Flash Looks Good For How Fast It Is
via Substack Zvi [999] — Google once again has a model worth at least some consideration.
The Erdős Proof and AI Capabilities
via MIRI [999] — View the official memo here. An internal model at OpenAI has autonomously disproved a central conjecture in discrete geometry, a mathematical field with applications in cryptography, wireless device communication, and medical imaging. The proof relates to a…
Why would you disrespect your favorite artist with an AI remix?
via The Verge AI [4] — AI covers and remixes of songs are already a blight on the internet. Spotify, YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram are awash in flat reggae versions of "Smells Like Teen Spirit," dinky country renditions of The Weeknd, and monotonous Motown reimaginings of…
OpenAI named a Leader in enterprise coding agents by Gartner
via OpenAI Blog [6] — OpenAI is named a leader in the 2026 Gartner Magic Quadrant for Enterprise AI Coding Agents, with Codex recognized for innovation and enterprise-scale deployment.
Do AI Risks Require Extraordinary Government Intervention?
via AI Snake Oil [7] — Let’s not skip the hard work of AI governance
AI #169: New Knowledge
via Substack Zvi [999] — Even in a relatively quiet period, AI is out there creating new knowledge.
The Case for Evaluating Model Behaviors
via Alignment Forum [999] — Most evaluations of AI systems focus on their capabilities: how good they are at coding tasks, how effectively they can answer complex scientific questions, and so on.From a safety perspective, capability evaluations have a place: by understanding how…
You can now remix other people’s YouTube Shorts with AI
via The Verge AI [4] — Google announced a new YouTube Shorts Remix feature that lets users restyle clips or even insert themselves into other people's videos using Gemini Omni. Now, at the bottom of a YouTube Short, when you click the remix icon, you'll see an option to…
Demis Hassabis said this might be the ‘foothills of the singularity.’ What?
via The Verge AI [6] — Welcome to a "profound moment for humanity," according to Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis, who closed out Google I/O's keynote presentation on Tuesday, saying: Google's cutting-edge research and products will help unlock AGI's incredible potential for…
Childhood And Education #19: Letting Kids Be Kids #2
via Substack Zvi [999] — I cannot emphasize enough the need to let kids be kids.
Live Doom Meter
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0% — We're fine
100% — GG
The Doom Meter is a composite score derived from prediction markets and feed sentiment, updated daily.
70%
Prediction Markets
Weighted average of Manifold Markets questions on AI catastrophe, AGI timelines, expert surveys, and key figures. Direct doom indicators weighted higher than indirect capability markers.
30%
Feed Sentiment
Percentage of recent headlines containing high-alarm keywords (existential risk, catastrophe, extinction). Higher alarm density = higher score.
This is not a scientific estimate of existential risk. It is an opinionated, transparent signal — a vibes-based thermometer for AI doom discourse.
P(Doom) Scoreboard
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Recent Voices
We are creating something that will be more powerful than us. I don't know a good precedent for a less intelligent thing managing a more intelligent thing.
— Geoffrey Hinton, Nobel Prize Lecture, Dec 2024
If you're not worried about AI safety, you're not paying attention.
— Sen. Blumenthal, Senate AI Hearing, 2024
The probability of doom is high enough that we should be working very hard to reduce it.
— Yoshua Bengio, MILA Talk, 2024