DOOM LEVEL
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Canva’s new editing tool adds layers to AI-generated designs
via The Verge AI [4] — Canva introduced a new feature that separates flat image files and AI-generated visuals into layered, fully editable designs. The Magic Layers tool is launching in public beta today in the US, UK, Canada, and Australia, allowing design components like…
GPT-5.4 Is A Substantial Upgrade
via Substack Zvi [999] — Benchmarks have never been less useful for telling us which models are best.
The Refined Counterfactual Prisoner's Dilemma
via Alignment Forum [999] — I was inspired to revise my formulation of this thought experiment by Ihor Kendiukhov's post On The Independence Axiom.Kendiukhov quotes Scott Garrabrant:My take is that the concept of expected utility maximization is a mistake. [...] As far as I…
The Day After Move 37
via LessWrong AI [4] — I was a few months into 21 years old when a hijacked plane crashed into the first World Trade Center tower. I was commuting in to work listening to the radio (as was the style at the times). I couldn’t figure out how the heck a plane could hit the tower.…
AIs will be used in “unhinged” configurations
via Alignment Forum [999] — Writing up a probably-obvious point that I want to refer to later, with significant writing LLM writing help.TL;DR: 1) A common critique of AI safety evaluations is that they occur in unrealistic settings, such as excessive goal conflict, or are…
Meissa: Multi-modal Medical Agentic Intelligence
via ArXiv cs.AI [5] — Multi-modal large language models (MM-LLMs) have shown strong performance in medical image understanding and clinical reasoning. Recent medical agent systems extend them with tool use and multi-agent collaboration, enabling complex decision-making. However,…
What do we know about AI company employee giving?
via LessWrong AI [7] — Many Anthropic employees, especially, are sympathetic to AI safety and (will) have lots of money. This is something that is being talked about a lot (semi-)privately, but I haven't seen any public discussion of it. I find that striking. It seems like the…
AuditBench: Evaluating Alignment Auditing Techniques on Models with Hidden Behaviors
via LessWrong AI [3] — TL;DR We release AuditBench, an alignment auditing benchmark. AuditBench consists of 56 language models with implanted hidden behaviors—such as sycophantic deference, opposition to AI regulation, or hidden loyalties—which they do not confess to when asked.…
Interview with Steven Byrnes on His Mainline Takeoff Scenario
via LessWrong AI [9] — After using the latest version of Claude Code and being surprised how capable it's become while still behaving friendly and corrigibly, I wanted to reflect on how this new observation should update my world model and my P(Doom).So I reached out to Dr.…
The case for satiating cheaply-satisfied AI preferences
via Alignment Forum [999] — A central AI safety concern is that AIs will develop unintended preferences and undermine human control to achieve them. But some unintended preferences are cheap to satisfy, and failing to satisfy them needlessly turns a cooperative situation into an…
Meta acquires Moltbook, the Reddit-like network for AI agents
via The Verge AI [4] — Meta is acquiring Moltbook, a Reddit-like platform where AI agents can make and comment on posts, as first reported by Axios. In a statement to The Verge, Meta spokesperson Matthew Tye confirmed the Moltbook team will join Meta Superintelligence Labs as…
The case for AI safety capacity-building work
via LessWrong AI [7] — TL;DR:I think many of the marginal hires at larger organizations doing AI safety technical or policy work right now (including e.g. Apollo, Redwood, METR, RAND TASP, GovAI, Epoch, UKAISI, and Anthropic’s safety teams) would be capable of founding (or being…
Best-of-Tails: Bridging Optimism and Pessimism in Inference-Time Alignment
via ArXiv cs.AI [5] — Inference-time alignment effectively steers large language models (LLMs) by generating multiple candidates from a reference model and selecting among them with an imperfect reward model. However, current strategies face a fundamental dilemma: ``optimistic''…
Autonomous AI Agents for Option Hedging: Enhancing Financial Stability through Shortfall Aware Reinforcement Learning
via ArXiv cs.AI [3] — The deployment of autonomous AI agents in derivatives markets has widened a practical gap between static model calibration and realized hedging outcomes. We introduce two reinforcement learning frameworks, a novel Replication Learning of Option Pricing…
Employees across OpenAI and Google support Anthropic’s lawsuit against the Pentagon
via The Verge AI [4] — On Monday, Anthropic filed its lawsuit against the Department of Defense over being designated as a supply chain risk. Hours later, nearly 40 employees from OpenAI and Google - including Jeff Dean, Google's chief scientist and Gemini lead - filed an amicus…
Claude Code, Claude Cowork and Codex #5
via Substack Zvi [999] — It feels good to get back to some of the fun stuff.
Censored LLMs as a Natural Testbed for Secret Knowledge Elicitation
via Alignment Forum [999] — TL;DR: We introduce a testbed based on censored Chinese LLMs, which serve as natural objects of study for studying secret elicitation techniques. Then we study the efficacy of honesty elicitation and lie detection techniques for detecting and removing…
From games to biology and beyond: 10 years of AlphaGo’s impact
via DeepMind Blog [4] — Ten years since AlphaGo, we explore how it is catalyzing scientific discovery and paving a path to AGI.
Promoting enmity and bad vibes around AI safety
via LessWrong AI [9] — I've observed some people engaged in activities that I believe are promoting enmity in the course of their efforts to raise awareness about AI risk. To be frank, I think those activities are increasing AI risk, including but not limited to extinction risk.…
Evolving Medical Imaging Agents via Experience-driven Self-skill Discovery
via ArXiv cs.AI [5] — Clinical image interpretation is inherently multi-step and tool-centric: clinicians iteratively combine visual evidence with patient context, quantify findings, and refine their decisions through a sequence of specialized procedures. While LLM-based agents…
Live Doom Meter
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0% — We're fine
100% — GG
The Doom Meter is a composite score derived from prediction markets and feed sentiment, updated daily.
70%
Prediction Markets
Weighted average of Manifold Markets questions on AI catastrophe, AGI timelines, expert surveys, and key figures. Direct doom indicators weighted higher than indirect capability markers.
30%
Feed Sentiment
Percentage of recent headlines containing high-alarm keywords (existential risk, catastrophe, extinction). Higher alarm density = higher score.
This is not a scientific estimate of existential risk. It is an opinionated, transparent signal — a vibes-based thermometer for AI doom discourse.
P(Doom) Scoreboard
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Recent Voices
We are creating something that will be more powerful than us. I don't know a good precedent for a less intelligent thing managing a more intelligent thing.
— Geoffrey Hinton, Nobel Prize Lecture, Dec 2024
If you're not worried about AI safety, you're not paying attention.
— Sen. Blumenthal, Senate AI Hearing, 2024
The probability of doom is high enough that we should be working very hard to reduce it.
— Yoshua Bengio, MILA Talk, 2024