DOOM LEVEL
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Latest Headlines
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Childhood And Education #19: Letting Kids Be Kids #2
via Substack Zvi [999] — I cannot emphasize enough the need to let kids be kids.
Google Search is getting its biggest changes ever
via The Verge AI [4] — Google Search is entering the next phase of its AI evolution. During Google I/O 2026, the company showed off a reimagined search box that makes it easier to flow between AI Overviews, the AI-generated summaries that appear at the top of search results, and…
AgentWall: A Runtime Safety Layer for Local AI Agents
via ArXiv cs.AI [8] — The safety of autonomous AI agents is increasingly recognized as a critical open problem. As agents transition from passive text generators to active actors capable of executing shell commands, modifying files, calling APIs, and browsing the web, the…
Thoughts on interviewing candidates for AI safety fellowships
via LessWrong AI [5] — Around July last year I decided I was going to go all in on technical AI safety research. To do that I’d need to get into an AI safety fellowship, quit my job, and sell everything that was in my flat in South Africa (hopefully in that order).I applied to…
Classifier Context Rot: Monitor Performance Degrades with Context Length
via LessWrong AI [3] — Monitoring coding agents for dangerous behavior using language models requires classifying transcripts that often exceed 500K tokens, but prior agent monitoring benchmarks rarely contain transcripts longer than 100K tokens.We show that when used as…
Dating Roundup #12: Sex and Violence
via Substack Zvi [999] — No more burying the sex stuff under an avalanche of other stuff so no one notices.
Fast-tracking genetic leads to reverse cellular aging
via DeepMind Blog [4] — Biologists use Co-Scientist to find novel factors that successfully rejuvenate human cells.
Verifiable Agentic Infrastructure: Proof-Derived Authorization for Sovereign AI Systems
via ArXiv cs.AI [3] — Modern cloud and enterprise systems rely on identity-centric authorization, assuming that callers possessing valid credentials are safe to execute commands. The emergence of autonomous AI agents invalidates this assumption: agents can generate syntactically…
SDOF: Taming the Alignment Tax in Multi-Agent Orchestration with State-Constrained Dispatch
via ArXiv cs.AI [3] — Multi-agent orchestration frameworks such as LangChain, LangGraph, and CrewAI route tasks through graph-based pipelines but do not enforce the stage constraints that govern real business processes. We present SDOF, a framework that treats multi-agent…
An Introduction to Exemplar Partitioning for Mechanistic Interpretability
via LessWrong AI [7] — Most of what we currently call "feature discovery" in language models is wrapped up in dictionary-learning methods like sparse autoencoders (SAEs) – which work, and which have been scaled to millions of features on frontier-scale models, but which bundle…
A Year Late, Claude Finally Beats Pokémon
via LessWrong AI [3] — Credit: ClaudePlaysPokemon Elevator Shanty by KurukkooDisclaimer: like some previous posts in this series, this was not primarily written by me, but by a friend. I did substantial editing, however.ClaudePlaysPokemon feat. Opus 4.7 has finally beaten…
A Two-Dimensional Framework for AI Agent Design Patterns: Cognitive Function and Execution Topology
via ArXiv cs.AI [3] — Existing frameworks for LLM-based agent architectures describe systems from a single perspective: industry guides (Anthropic, Google, LangChain) focus on execution topology -- how data flows -- while cognitive science surveys focus on cognitive function --…
The hard core of alignment (is robustifying RL)
via LessWrong AI [5] — Most technical AI safety work that I read seems to miss the mark, failing to make any progress on the hard part of the problem. I think this is a common sentiment, but there's less agreement about what exactly the hard part is? Characterizing this more…
Risk reports need to address deployment-time spread of misalignment
via Alignment Forum [999] — Risk reports commonly use pre-deployment alignment assessments to measure misalignment risk from an internally deployed AI. However, an AI that genuinely starts out with largely benign motivations can develop widespread dangerous motivations during…
Mechanistic estimation for expectations of random products
via Alignment Forum [999] — We have developed some relatively general methods for mechanistic estimation competitive with sampling by studying problems that are expressible as expectations of random products. This includes several different estimation problems, such as random…
Monthly Roundup #42: May 2026
via Substack Zvi [999] — At least we probably won’t have another pandemic.
Convergent Abstraction Hypothesis
via LessWrong AI [4] — Tl;drConvergent abstraction hypothesis posits abstractions are often convergent in the sense of convergent evolution: different cognitive systems converge on the same abstraction, when facing similar selection pressures and learning in similar…
OpenAI’s Codex is now in the ChatGPT mobile app
via The Verge AI [4] — OpenAI is going to let users access Codex, its desktop AI tool that can write code and use apps on your computer, from the ChatGPT app on your phone. Following the surge in popularity for Anthropic's Claude Code, OpenAI has been working quickly to try and…
The safe-to-dangerous shift is a fundamental problem for eval realism; but also for measuring awareness
via Alignment Forum [999] — 1) The safe-to-dangerous shift is a fundamental problem for eval realismSuppose we have a capable and potentially scheming model, and before we deploy it, we want some evidence that it won’t do anything catastrophically dangerous once we deploy it. A…
AI #168: Not Leading the Future
via Substack Zvi [999] — This is what a lull looks like at this point.
Live Doom Meter
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0% — We're fine
100% — GG
The Doom Meter is a composite score derived from prediction markets and feed sentiment, updated daily.
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Prediction Markets
Weighted average of Manifold Markets questions on AI catastrophe, AGI timelines, expert surveys, and key figures. Direct doom indicators weighted higher than indirect capability markers.
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Feed Sentiment
Percentage of recent headlines containing high-alarm keywords (existential risk, catastrophe, extinction). Higher alarm density = higher score.
This is not a scientific estimate of existential risk. It is an opinionated, transparent signal — a vibes-based thermometer for AI doom discourse.
P(Doom) Scoreboard
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Recent Voices
We are creating something that will be more powerful than us. I don't know a good precedent for a less intelligent thing managing a more intelligent thing.
— Geoffrey Hinton, Nobel Prize Lecture, Dec 2024
If you're not worried about AI safety, you're not paying attention.
— Sen. Blumenthal, Senate AI Hearing, 2024
The probability of doom is high enough that we should be working very hard to reduce it.
— Yoshua Bengio, MILA Talk, 2024