DOOM LEVEL
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Catching illicit distributed training operations during an AI pause
via LessWrong AI [3] — Last year, my colleagues on MIRI’s Technical Governance Team proposed an international agreement to halt risky development of superhuman artificial intelligence until it can be done safely. The agreement would require all clusters of AI chips with more…
Pausing AI Is the Best Answer to Post-Alignment Problems
via LessWrong AI [5] — Even if we solve the AI alignment problem, we still face post-alignment problems, which are all the other existential problems [1] that AI may bring. People have identified various imposing problems that we may need to solve before developing ASI. An…
Dario probably doesn't believe in superintelligence
via LessWrong AI [6] — But I had to get 500 words out! I think the 2013 conversation is interesting reading as a piece of history, separate from the top-level question, and recommend reading that.I think many people have a relationship with Anthropic that is premised on a false…
Claude Mythos #2: Cybersecurity and Project Glasswing
via Substack Zvi [999] — Anthropic is not going to release its new most capable model, Claude Mythos, to the public any time soon.
Have we already lost? Part 2: Reasons for Doom
via LessWrong AI [9] — Written very quickly for the Inkhaven Residency.As I take the time to reflect on the state of AI Safety in early 2026, one question feels unavoidable: have we, as the AI Safety community, already lost? That is, have we passed the point of no return, after…
Claude Mythos: The System Card
via Substack Zvi [999] — Claude Mythos is different.
Have we already lost? Part 1: The Plan in 2024
via LessWrong AI [5] — Written very quickly for the Inkhaven Residency.As I take the time to reflect on the state of AI Safety in early 2026, one question feels unavoidable: have we, as the AI Safety community, already lost? That is, have we passed the point of no return, after…
SymptomWise: A Deterministic Reasoning Layer for Reliable and Efficient AI Systems
via ArXiv cs.AI [3] — AI-driven symptom analysis systems face persistent challenges in reliability, interpretability, and hallucination. End-to-end generative approaches often lack traceability and may produce unsupported or inconsistent diagnostic outputs in safety-critical…
101 Humans of New York on the Risks of AI
via LessWrong AI [4] — Nobody has ever done an in person door to door survey about AI risks[1]. What do people really think about AI? Like really? There have been some surveys on the risks from AI. But there’s a real difference between looking at numbers on page vs. the feeling…
Meta is reentering the AI race with a new model called Muse Spark
via The Verge AI [4] — Meta Superintelligence Labs is launching its first model since Mark Zuckerberg spent billions overhauling the company's AI efforts. Called Muse Spark, the model now powers the Meta AI app and the Meta AI website in the US, per the company's announcement.…
AI #163: Mythos Quest
via Substack Zvi [999] — There exists an AI model, Claude Mythos, that has discovered critical safety vulnerabilities in every major operating system and browser.
MedGemma 1.5 Technical Report
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — We introduce MedGemma 1.5 4B, the latest model in the MedGemma collection. MedGemma 1.5 expands on MedGemma 1 by integrating additional capabilities: high-dimensional medical imaging (CT/MRI volumes and histopathology whole slide images), anatomical…
MMORF: A Multi-agent Framework for Designing Multi-objective Retrosynthesis Planning Systems
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — Multi-objective retrosynthesis planning is a critical chemistry task requiring dynamic balancing of quality, safety, and cost objectives. Language model-based multi-agent systems (MAS) offer a promising approach for this task: leveraging interactions of…
Part-Level 3D Gaussian Vehicle Generation with Joint and Hinge Axis Estimation
via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — Simulation is essential for autonomous driving, yet current frameworks often model vehicles as rigid assets and fail to capture part-level articulation. With perception algorithms increasingly leveraging dynamics such as wheel steering or door opening,…
My unsupervised elicitation challenge
via Alignment Forum [999] — 6 makes. If you’re ineligible, please don’t help other people complete the challenge. I have recently started using Claude Opus 4.6 to start studying Ancient Greek. Specifically, I initially used it to grade problem sets at the end of the textbook…
Opus's Schelling Steganography Has Amplifiable Secrecy Against Weaker Eavesdroppers
via LessWrong AI [3] — Code: github.com/ElleNajt/Steganography_Wiretapping | Data: huggingface.co/datasets/lnajt/steganography-wiretapping Play the decoding game: can you eavesdrop on Claude Opus 4.6? tldr of post Frontier models (Opus and Gemini Pro) can agree on Schelling…
An Alignment Journal: Features and policies
via LessWrong AI [5] — We previously announced a forthcoming research journal for AI alignment. This cross-post from our blog describes our tentative plans for the features and policies of the journal, including experiments like reviewer compensation and reviewer abstracts. It…
OpenAI #16: A History and a Proposal
via Substack Zvi [999] — The real news today is that Anthropic has partnered with the top companies in cybersecurity to try and patch everyone’s systems to fix all the thousands of zero-day exploits found by their new model Claude Mythos.
My picture of the present in AI
via Alignment Forum [999] — In this post, I'll go through some of my best guesses for the current situation in AI as of the start of April 2026. You can think of this as a scenario forecast, but for the present (which is already uncertain!) rather than the future. I will…
[Paper] Stringological sequence prediction I
via Alignment Forum [999] — TLDR: The first in a planned series of three or more papers, which constitute the first major in-road in the compositional learning programme, and a substantial step towards bridging agent foundations theory with practical algorithms.Official…
Live Doom Meter
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0% — We're fine
100% — GG
The Doom Meter is a composite score derived from prediction markets and feed sentiment, updated daily.
70%
Prediction Markets
Weighted average of Manifold Markets questions on AI catastrophe, AGI timelines, expert surveys, and key figures. Direct doom indicators weighted higher than indirect capability markers.
30%
Feed Sentiment
Percentage of recent headlines containing high-alarm keywords (existential risk, catastrophe, extinction). Higher alarm density = higher score.
This is not a scientific estimate of existential risk. It is an opinionated, transparent signal — a vibes-based thermometer for AI doom discourse.
P(Doom) Scoreboard
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Recent Voices
We are creating something that will be more powerful than us. I don't know a good precedent for a less intelligent thing managing a more intelligent thing.
— Geoffrey Hinton, Nobel Prize Lecture, Dec 2024
If you're not worried about AI safety, you're not paying attention.
— Sen. Blumenthal, Senate AI Hearing, 2024
The probability of doom is high enough that we should be working very hard to reduce it.
— Yoshua Bengio, MILA Talk, 2024