DOOM LEVEL
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Latest Headlines
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Anthropic Officially, Arbitrarily and Capriciously Designated a Supply Chain Risk
via Substack Zvi [999] — Make no mistake about what is happening.
The Elect
via LessWrong AI — I was different in Michael’s prison than I was outside, looking the way I did when we fell in love so long ago, in that time before we could change our forms. Stuck in some body that was not of my choosing? Does that seem strange to you? It was not like that…
Shaping the exploration of the motivation-space matters for AI safety
via LessWrong AI [5] — SummaryWe argue that shaping RL exploration, and especially the exploration of the motivation-space, is understudied in AI safety and could be influential in mitigating risks. Several recent discussions hint in this direction — the entangled generalization…
Towards automated data analysis: A guided framework for LLM-based risk estimation
via ArXiv cs.AI [2] — Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into critical decision-making pipelines, a trend that raises the demand for robust and automated data analysis. Current approaches to dataset risk analysis are limited to manual auditing methods
SkillNet: Create, Evaluate, and Connect AI Skills
via ArXiv cs.AI — Current AI agents can flexibly invoke tools and execute complex tasks, yet their long-term advancement is hindered by the lack of systematic accumulation and transfer of skills. Without a unified mechanism for skill consolidation, agents frequently ``r
AI Safety Has 12 Months Left
via LessWrong AI — The past decade of technology has been defined by many wondering what the upper bound of power and influence is for an individual company. The core concern about AI labs is that the upper bound is infinite.[1]This has led investors to direct all of their mindshare towards deploying into AI, the tech
Personality Self-Replicators
via LessWrong AI [5] — One-sentence summaryI describe the risk of personality self-replicators, the threat of OpenClaw-like agents managing spreading in hard-to-control ways. SummaryLLM agents like OpenClaw are defined by a small set of text files and are run by an open source framework which leverages LLMs
AI #158: The Department of War
via Substack Zvi — This was the worst week I have had in quite a while, maybe ever.
Introducing GPT-5.4
via OpenAI Blog [5] — Introducing GPT-5.4, OpenAI’s most most capable and efficient frontier model for professional work, with state-of-the-art coding, computer use, tool search, and 1M-token context.
Reasoning models struggle to control their chains of thought, and that’s good
via OpenAI Blog [7] — OpenAI introduces CoT-Control and finds reasoning models struggle to control their chains of thought, reinforcing monitorability as an AI safety safeguard.
Gemini 3.1 Pro Aces Benchmarks, I Suppose
via Substack Zvi — I’ve been trying to find a slot for this one for a while.
Mass Surveillance w/ LLMs is the Default Outcome. Contracts Won't Change That.
via LessWrong AI [3] — What's the best case scenario regarding OpenAI's contract w/ the Department of War (DoW)?We have access to the full contractIt's airtightOAI's engineers are on top of things in case the DoW breaks the contractThere's actual teeth for violationsBut even then, the DoW can simply switch vendors. Use Ge
I Had Claude Read Every AI Safety Paper Since 2020, Here's the DB
via LessWrong AI — Click here if you just want to see the Database I made of all[1] AI safety papers written since 2020 and not read the methodology. To some extent the core idea here is to encode as much info from these papers into something small enough that an AI with a specific problem in mind can take in all
An Alignment Journal: Coming Soon
via LessWrong AI [9] — tl;dr We’re incubating an academic journal for AI alignment: rapid peer-review of foundational Alignment research that the current publication ecosystem underserves. Key bets: paid attributed review, reviewer-written synthesis abstracts, and targeted automation. Contact us if…
A Tale of Three Contracts
via Substack Zvi [2] — The attempt on Friday by Secretary of War Pete Hegsted to label Anthropic as a supply chain risk and commit corporate murder had a variety of motivations.
Anthropic upgrades Claude’s memory to attract AI switchers
via The Verge AI [2] — Anthropic is making it easier to switch to its Claude AI from other chatbots with an update that brings Claude's memory feature to users on the free plan, along with a new prompt and dedicated tool for importing data from other chatbots. These upgrades could allow users who have been using rivals li
War Claude
via LessWrong AI [2] — What a weekend. Two new wars in Asia don't qualify as top news. My first reaction to Hegseth's conflict with Anthropic was along the lines of: I expected an attempt at quasi-nationalization of AI, but not this soon. And I expected it to look like it was managed by national security professionals. He
OpenAI’s “compromise” with the Pentagon is what Anthropic feared
via MIT Technology Review [4] — On February 28, OpenAI announced it had reached a deal that will allow the US military to use its technologies in classified settings. CEO Sam Altman said the negotiations, which the company began pursuing only after the Pentagon’s public reprimand of Anthropic, were “definitely rushed.” In its anno
How OpenAI caved to the Pentagon on AI surveillance
via The Verge AI [4] — On Friday evening, amidst fallout from a standoff between the Department of Defense and Anthropic, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced that his own company had successfully negotiated new terms with the Pentagon. The US government had just moved to blacklist Anthropic for standing firm on two red lines
Secretary of War Tweets That Anthropic is Now a Supply Chain Risk
via Substack Zvi [2] — This is the long version of what happened so far.
Live Doom Meter
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0% — We're fine
100% — GG
The Doom Meter is a composite score derived from prediction markets and feed sentiment, updated daily.
70%
Prediction Markets
Weighted average of Manifold Markets questions on AI catastrophe, AGI timelines, expert surveys, and key figures. Direct doom indicators weighted higher than indirect capability markers.
30%
Feed Sentiment
Percentage of recent headlines containing high-alarm keywords (existential risk, catastrophe, extinction). Higher alarm density = higher score.
This is not a scientific estimate of existential risk. It is an opinionated, transparent signal — a vibes-based thermometer for AI doom discourse.
P(Doom) Scoreboard
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Recent Voices
We are creating something that will be more powerful than us. I don't know a good precedent for a less intelligent thing managing a more intelligent thing.
— Geoffrey Hinton, Nobel Prize Lecture, Dec 2024
If you're not worried about AI safety, you're not paying attention.
— Sen. Blumenthal, Senate AI Hearing, 2024
The probability of doom is high enough that we should be working very hard to reduce it.
— Yoshua Bengio, MILA Talk, 2024