Tracking AI existential risk. Source-backed context. Original reporting always linked.

MONITORING CORE AI-RISK FEEDS · UPDATED HOURLY

Topic dossier

Analysis

Recent evidence, sources and high-relevance stories in this PDOOM topic.

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Zac Boring 3 months ago Analysis

Tie training can make DPO/RLHF-trained AIs generalize better

via LessWrong AI [3] — This post covers our recent ICML paper: Spurious Correlation Learning in Preference Optimization: Mechanisms, Consequences, and Mitigation via Tie Training.TL;DROur theorems and experiments suggest that DPO and RLHF have an unwelcome consequence: they make…

Zac Boring 3 months ago Analysis

We need 3rd party Training-Run Assessments

via LessWrong AI [8] — Training-run assessments conducted by a 3rd party should become a standard part of frontier AI safety.By a Training-Run Assessment, or TRA, I mean an in-depth analysis of the post-training pipeline and dynamics leading up to a frontier model release. A TRA…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

Fable #6: The Return of the King

via Substack Zvi [999] — The blip is over.

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

AI Futurism Reading List

via LessWrong AI [5] — We at Redwood recently ran a strategy fellowship through Astra. As part of this, we ran a reading group for our fellows on some of the topics that we think are important for thinking about AI futurism (key dynamics in AI development, existential risk from…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

The AFFINE Superintelligence Alignment Seminar – A Retrospective

via LessWrong AI [4] — A Day at AFFINE[1]“AFFINE was the best month of intellectual exploration I have had the opportunity to engage in, ever. Usually opportunities like this are limited to a day or a weekend, which both limits depth, forces a sprint-type mindset, and generally…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

AI #175: The Fable Continues

via Substack Zvi [999] — Fable’s back.

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

When capabilities work is the safe bet

via LessWrong AI [5] — If you believe that LLMs lend themselves unusually well to alignment compared to other regimes, this can be a very good reason to start doing capability research on them rather than LLM safety research. Imagine you have these beliefs about how AI goes:By I…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

Conversations With Cade Metz on the Rationalists

via LessWrong AI [4] — (Previously, previously.) New York Times reporter Cade Metz has been writing a book about the people who believed in AGI before it was cool. That's a subject that I think I know some things about, so we had some on-the-record conversations in 2025, which…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

Claude Sonnet 5 Is Not Frontier But Has Its Uses

via Substack Zvi [999] — Fable 5 is back today, baby! Premium subscribers have one week to use it within their subscriptions. First hit’s free. Then you pay by the token.

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

Model access for third-parties — it's a big deal!

via LessWrong AI [5] — Over time, there might be an increasingly large gap between insider model access and outsider model access. By insiders, I mean employees at the frontier lab.[1] By "outsiders", I mean external safety researchers, third-party auditors, and other actors…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

Structural Proxies

via LessWrong AI [4] — Lately I've been thinking a lot about what work would help with actually winning and getting to good worlds. In the spirit of that I decided to venture outside my normal wheelhouse and spend some time reflecting on what technical research could make me…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

The Once And Future Fable #5

via Substack Zvi [999] — We, or at least ‘more than 100 American institutions,’ got Mythos back this week.

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

In partial defence of p(doom)

via LessWrong AI [7] — p(doom) is a shorthand for some important bits and a way to notice a disagreement to double-crux about.If you work on AI capabilities at a frontier AI company, I might ask you for your p(doom).If it's less than 1%, I know that you're probably not familiar…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

Human-Guided Agentic Research: A Research Agenda

via LessWrong AI [4] — tl;dr: As recursive self-improvement accelerates, we need a top-level agenda to research how to effectively keep humans in the loop. We need to study how humans can best interpret and guide research performed by autonomous agents when those agents lack…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

AI will make biological extinction risks worse before it makes them better

via LessWrong AI [4] — An argument goes: If we don't build aligned artificial superintelligence, we risk driving ourselves extinct for some other reason. We should rush to build ASI quickly, in spite of the risks—the longer we wait, the more vulnerable we are to extinction from…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

$1M AI x-risk grant round is live on grantmaking.ai - apply for funding, review applicants, or fund projects

via LessWrong AI [5] — TLDR: what is the grant round?grantmaking.ai is launching a $1M grant round, distributing $5k to $50k per successful application to people and projects working to reduce x-risk from AI.Applications will be reviewed by Gavin Leech, Ryan Kidd, and Marcus…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

P(doom) is a Dumb Meme

via LessWrong AI [10] — Look, I'm as much of a Rationalist with a special interest in AI x-risk as anyone. But oh my god do I hate talking about "P(doom)". When it first started showing up in the wake of ChatGPT, I assumed that it was floating around variously adjacent circles…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

WSJ Article Claiming China Has Matched Anthropic Is Obvious Nonsense

via Substack Zvi [999] — The Wall Street Journal printed an outright false headline and heavily misleading story claiming this, which of course was uncritically amplified by the usual suspects.

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

A reading list for generalists

via LessWrong AI [5] — I, along with many others in AI safety, believe there is a shortage of generalists in the community and that there exist many projects and efforts that by default will not happen unless they are owned by a strong generalist[1][2][3]. As someone who is a…

Zac Boring 4 months ago Analysis

GPT-5.6: The System Card

via Substack Zvi [999] — While we wait for a general release, the system card is the best hint as to what is going on with the new candidate for America’s Next Top Model, GPT-5.6.

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AI-risk positions

Historical statements with original sources. A qualitative position is not a numeric probability. Dates refer to the cited statement, not a current estimate. Reviewed September 10, 2026.

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