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Topic dossier

Analysis

Recent evidence, sources and high-relevance stories in this PDOOM topic.

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Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

Dwarkesh Patel on the Anthropic DoW dispute

via LessWrong AI [3] — Below is the text of blog post that Dwarkesh Patel wrote on the Anthropic DoW dispute and related topics. He has also narrated it here. By now, I’m sure you’ve heard that the Department of War has declared Anthropic a supply chain risk, because Anthropic…

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

How Hard a Problem is Alignment? (My Opinionated Answer)

via LessWrong AI [6] — TL;DR: Comparing person-years of effort, I argue that AI Safety seems harder than for steam engines, but probably less hard than the Apollo program or . I discuss why I suspect superalignment might not be super-hard. My has come down over the last…

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

GPT-5.4 Is A Substantial Upgrade

via Substack Zvi [999] — Benchmarks have never been less useful for telling us which models are best.

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

The Day After Move 37

via LessWrong AI [4] — I was a few months into 21 years old when a hijacked plane crashed into the first World Trade Center tower. I was commuting in to work listening to the radio (as was the style at the times). I couldn’t figure out how the heck a plane could hit the tower.…

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

What do we know about AI company employee giving?

via LessWrong AI [7] — Many Anthropic employees, especially, are sympathetic to AI safety and (will) have lots of money. This is something that is being talked about a lot (semi-)privately, but I haven't seen any public discussion of it. I find that striking. It seems like the…

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

AuditBench: Evaluating Alignment Auditing Techniques on Models with Hidden Behaviors

via LessWrong AI [3] — TL;DR We release AuditBench, an alignment auditing benchmark. AuditBench consists of 56 language models with implanted hidden behaviors—such as sycophantic deference, opposition to AI regulation, or hidden loyalties—which they do not confess to when asked.…

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

Interview with Steven Byrnes on His Mainline Takeoff Scenario

via LessWrong AI [9] — After using the latest version of Claude Code and being surprised how capable it's become while still behaving friendly and corrigibly, I wanted to reflect on how this new observation should update my world model and my P(Doom).So I reached out to Dr.…

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

The case for AI safety capacity-building work

via LessWrong AI [7] — TL;DR:I think many of the marginal hires at larger organizations doing AI safety technical or policy work right now (including e.g. Apollo, Redwood, METR, RAND TASP, GovAI, Epoch, UKAISI, and Anthropic’s safety teams) would be capable of founding (or being…

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

Claude Code, Claude Cowork and Codex #5

via Substack Zvi [999] — It feels good to get back to some of the fun stuff.

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

Promoting enmity and bad vibes around AI safety

via LessWrong AI [9] — I've observed some people engaged in activities that I believe are promoting enmity in the course of their efforts to raise awareness about AI risk. To be frank, I think those activities are increasing AI risk, including but not limited to extinction risk.…

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

Payorian cooperation is easy with Kripke frames

via LessWrong AI [3] — The context is MIRI's twist on Axelrod's Prisoner's Dilemma tournament. Axelrod's competitors were programs, facing each other in an iterated Prisoner's Dilemma. MIRI's tournament is a one-shot Prisoner's Dilemma, but the programs get to read their…

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

Your Causal Variables Are Irreducibly Subjective

via LessWrong AI [7] — Mechanistic interpretability needs its own shoe leather era. Reproducing the labeling process will matter more than reproducing the Github. And who can blame us? Causal inference comes with an impressive toolkit: directed acyclic graphs, potential…

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

Mox is the largest AI Safety community space in San Francisco. We're fundraising!

via LessWrong AI [5] — Summary: Mox is fundraising to maintain and grow AIS projects, build a compelling membership, and foster other impactful and delightful work. We're looking to raise $450k for 2026, and you can donate on Manifund!OverviewWho we areMox is SF’s largest AI…

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

Thoughts on the Pause AI protest

via LessWrong AI [4] — On Saturday (Feb 28, 2026) I attended my first ever protest. It was jointly organized by PauseAI, Pull the Plug and a handful of other groups I forget. I have mixed feelings about it. To be clear about where I stand: I believe that AI labs are worryingly…

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

Anthropic Officially, Arbitrarily and Capriciously Designated a Supply Chain Risk

via Substack Zvi [999] — Make no mistake about what is happening.

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

The Elect

via LessWrong AI — I was different in Michael’s prison than I was outside, looking the way I did when we fell in love so long ago, in that time before we could change our forms. Stuck in some body that was not of my choosing? Does that seem strange to you? It was not like that…

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

Shaping the exploration of the motivation-space matters for AI safety

via LessWrong AI [5] — SummaryWe argue that shaping RL exploration, and especially the exploration of the motivation-space, is understudied in AI safety and could be influential in mitigating risks. Several recent discussions hint in this direction — the entangled generalization…

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

AI Safety Has 12 Months Left

via LessWrong AI — The past decade of technology has been defined by many wondering what the upper bound of power and influence is for an individual company. The core concern about AI labs is that the upper bound is infinite.[1]This has led investors to direct all of their mindshare towards deploying into AI, the tech

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

Personality Self-Replicators

via LessWrong AI [5] — One-sentence summaryI describe the risk of personality self-replicators, the threat of OpenClaw-like agents managing spreading in hard-to-control ways. SummaryLLM agents like OpenClaw are defined by a small set of text files and are run by an open source framework which leverages LLMs

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

AI #158: The Department of War

via Substack Zvi — This was the worst week I have had in quite a while, maybe ever.

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AI-risk positions

Historical statements with original sources. A qualitative position is not a numeric probability. Dates refer to the cited statement, not a current estimate. Reviewed September 10, 2026.

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