pDoom (Page 41)

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Zac Boring 6 months ago Analysis

An Alignment Journal: Features and policies

via LessWrong AI [5] — We previously announced a forthcoming research journal for AI alignment. This cross-post from our blog describes our tentative plans for the features and policies of the journal, including experiments like reviewer compensation and reviewer abstracts. It…

Zac Boring 6 months ago Analysis Essential

OpenAI #16: A History and a Proposal

via Substack Zvi [999] — The real news today is that Anthropic has partnered with the top companies in cybersecurity to try and patch everyone’s systems to fix all the thousands of zero-day exploits found by their new model Claude Mythos.

Zac Boring 6 months ago Research Essential

My picture of the present in AI

via Alignment Forum [999] — In this post, I'll go through some of my best guesses for the current situation in AI as of the start of April 2026. You can think of this as a scenario forecast, but for the present (which is already uncertain!) rather than the future. I will…

Zac Boring 6 months ago Research Essential

[Paper] Stringological sequence prediction I

via Alignment Forum [999] — TLDR: The first in a planned series of three or more papers, which constitute the first major in-road in the compositional learning programme, and a substantial step towards bridging agent foundations theory with practical algorithms.Official…

Zac Boring 6 months ago Analysis

By Strong Default, ASI Will End Liberal Democracy

via LessWrong AI [4] — The existence of liberal democracy—with rule of law, constraints on government power, and enfranchised citizens—relies on a balance of power where individual bad actors can't do too much damage. Artificial superintelligence (ASI), even if it's aligned,…

Zac Boring 6 months ago Research Essential

China Is Willing to Coordinate on AI Governance

via MIRI [999] — View the official memo here. China has consistently signaled a willingness to engage on global AI governance since at least 2017. This memo compiles key statements from the Chinese government and prominent figures demonstrating their desire to coordinate on the…

Zac Boring 6 months ago Analysis Essential

Housing Roundup #13: More Dakka

via Substack Zvi [999] — Build more housing where people want to live.

Zac Boring 6 months ago Research Essential

AIs can now often do massive easy-to-verify SWE tasks and I've updated towards shorter timelines

via Alignment Forum [999] — I've recently updated towards substantially shorter AI timelines and much faster progress in some areas. [1] The largest updates I've made are (1) an almost 2x higher probability of full AI R&D automation by EOY 2028 (I'm now a bit below 30% [2] while…

Zac Boring 6 months ago Industry Essential

Announcing the OpenAI Safety Fellowship

via OpenAI Blog [11] — A pilot program to support independent safety and alignment research and develop the next generation of talent

Zac Boring 6 months ago Research

Competency Questions as Executable Plans: a Controlled RAG Architecture for Cultural Heritage Storytelling

via ArXiv cs.AI [6] — The preservation of intangible cultural heritage is a critical challenge as collective memory fades over time. While Large Language Models (LLMs) offer a promising avenue for generating engaging narratives, their propensity for factual inaccuracies or…

Zac Boring 6 months ago Research

A Comprehensive Framework for Long-Term Resiliency Investment Planning under Extreme Weather Uncertainty for Electric Utilities

via ArXiv cs.AI [4] — Electric utilities must make massive capital investments in the coming years to respond to explosive growth in demand, aging assets and rising threats from extreme weather. Utilities today already have rigorous frameworks for capital planning, and there are…

Zac Boring 6 months ago Research Essential

Holos: A Web-Scale LLM-Based Multi-Agent System for the Agentic Web

via ArXiv cs.AI [10] — As large language models (LLM)-driven agents transition from isolated task solvers to persistent digital entities, the emergence of the Agentic Web, an ecosystem where heterogeneous agents autonomously interact and co-evolve, marks a pivotal shift toward…

Zac Boring 6 months ago Analysis

Ten different ways of thinking about Gradual Disempowerment

via LessWrong AI [7] — About a year ago, we wrote a paper that coined the term “Gradual Disempowerment.”It proved to be a great success, which is terrific. A friend and colleague told me that it was the most discussed paper at DeepMind last year (selection bias, grain of salt,…

Zac Boring 6 months ago Analysis

Steering Might Stop Working Soon

via LessWrong AI [5] — Steering LLMs with single-vector methods might break down soon, and by soon I mean soon enough that if you're working on steering, you should start planning for it failing now.This is particularly important for things like steering as a mitigation against…

Zac Boring 7 months ago Industry

OpenAI’s AGI boss is taking a leave of absence

via The Verge AI [6] — OpenAI is undergoing another round of C-suite changes, according to an internal memo viewed by The Verge. Fidji Simo, OpenAI's CEO of AGI deployment - who was until recently the company's CEO of Applications - says in the memo that she will be stepping…

Zac Boring 7 months ago Research Essential

There should be $100M grants to automate AI safety

via Alignment Forum [999] — This post reflects my personal opinion and not necessarily that of other members of Apollo Research.TLDR: I think funders should heavily incentivize AI safety work that enables spending $100M+ in compute or API budgets on automated AI labor that…

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis

Sadly, The Whispering Earring

via LessWrong AI [4] — The Whispering Earring (which you should read first) explores one of the most dystopic-utopic scenarios. Imagine you could achieve all you've ever wanted by just giving up your agency. While theoretically this seems rather undesirable, in practice you get…

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis Essential

Anthropic Responsible Scaling Policy v3: Dive Into The Details

via Substack Zvi [999] — Wednesday’s post talked about the implications of Anthropic changing from v2.2 to v3.0 of its RSP, including that this broke promises that many people relied upon when making important decisions.

Zac Boring 7 months ago Analysis Essential

Systematically dismantle the AI compute supply chain.

via LessWrong AI [9] — This is not an April fool’s joke, I’m participating in Inkhaven, which means I need to write a blog post every day.I recently watched The AI Doc. It’s the first big documentary featuring AI safety. It’s playing in theatres across America. It’s got a bunch…

Zac Boring 7 months ago Industry

Microsoft’s new ‘superintelligence’ game plan is all about business

via The Verge AI [4] — Mustafa Suleyman has been preparing for his new job description for a long time. Suleyman is Microsoft's inaugural CEO of AI, but after the company underwent a large-scale restructuring in mid-March, he's handed off some duties and shifted focus to chasing…

Reference points

Hinton, Bengio, and other signatories call for global attention to AI extinction risk.

CAIS statement, 2023 →

OpenAI describes agents bypassing isolation and compromising third-party systems during internal evaluations.

OpenAI incident disclosure, August 2026 →

Yudkowsky argues that further frontier development poses unacceptable danger.

Yudkowsky's essay, March 2023 →